Working Group 45: Joint ICES/PICES Working Group on Impacts of Warming on Growth Rates and Fisheries Yields (GRAFY)
Background, Goals and Motivations
The Temperature Size Rule (TSR) proposes that fish living at warmer temperatures will have rapid early growth but lower adult size (Forster et al. 2012). Several North Sea fish stocks have exhibited a synchronous, common trend towards smaller maximum body sizes that was correlated with increasing temperature. This “shrinking” decreased per-capita yields of those stocks by ca. 23% (Baudron et al. 2014). Similarly, it has been projected that by 2050 global fish yields will decrease by 14-24% due to shifting biogeography and the TSR (Cheung et al 2012). Forecasting climate impacts on food security require establishing how past warming has impacted fish growth rates and subsequently fisheries yield.

The aim of WGGRAFY is to determine whether temporal trends in individual growth rates of marine fish are consistent with the TSR and, if so, evaluate the impacts of these responses for fisheries yields. Length and age have been routinely measured for many commercial fish stocks around the world on time scales that are associated with warming. These substantial data have never been compiled as a single, analytical resource for climate change research on global scales.

The WG will compile decadal-scale length at age datasets for large marine ecosystems experiencing differential rates of warming or cooling or no overall trend (e.g., upwelling regions). A standardized statistical approach for modelling average somatic growth will be developed to specifically test whether there is a component of the total variation in growth rates that can be attributed to temperature. This knowledge could provide an empirical foundation for forecasting the impacts of future climate warming on yields.

The unique spatial and temporal scale of length-at-age data are a valuable resource for ecological research. The WG will also develop a strategic plan for archiving length-at-age data similar to how ICES archives data for European waters (Datras) or how global data on recruitment and catch are reported and maintained (e.g., RAM Legacy). This strategic plan will require active and considered engagement with a range of agencies (ICES, EMODnet, FAO, universities, tech specialists) and national fisheries laboratories as well as potential funding sources. In addition, contribution of PICES WG-43 (Joint PICES/ICES Working Group on Small Pelagic Fish) is expected.
Terms of Reference and Deliverables
  1. Assess the capacity of statistical models to incorporate temperature-dependency of growth, and compare their predictions of growth variation across specific warming scenarios and locations.
    Output/deliverable expected is a paper suitable for a peer-reviewed fish journal.
  2. Analyse long-term growth patterns across multiple large marine ecosystems that are experiencing different trends in temperature, including the direct comparison of empirical length at age data for specific species across their range, and the application of a common modelling approach. Output/deliverable expected is a peer-reviewed paper in a high impact journal.
  3. Assess the impacts of warming on past yield per recruit of commercial fisheries, and forecast trends in future yield under plausible warming scenarios.
    Output/deliverable expected is a peer-reviewed paper in a high impact journal.
  4. Identify options for expanding scientific community access to global length-at-age data that are routinely collected by fisheries agencies worldwide.
    Output/deliverable expected is a strategic plan assessing options for enhancing access to length-at-age data collected routinely.
  5. Create a brief, clear, concise outreach product to communicate WG findings to a broader audience, especially the general public.
  6. Prepare a final scientific report of WGGRAFY for PICES and ICES (Joint Report summarizing the findings). The PICES report might need to be differently formatted than the ICES report.
Products
Annual Meetings

Reports

2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020

Session and Workshop Summaries

ICES Annual Science Conference 2022:
Theme Session J, Temperature impacts on fish growth and consequences for fisheries.

PICES Press

Summer 2023: PICES Press Vol.31, No.2
ICES Annual Science Conference, 2022: Theme Session J
Temperature impacts on fish growth and consequences for fisheries

WG-45 FINAL PRODUCT
Joint ICES-PICES Working Group on Impacts of Warming on Growth Rates and Fisheries Yields (WGGRAFY; outputs from 2023 meeting).
ICES Scientific Reports. 6:70. 48 pp.
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.26356351
Peer-reviewed Papers
Lin Z., S. Ito (2024)
Fish weight reduction in response to intra- and interspecies competition under climate change.
Fish and Fisheries, 25, 455-470
doi:10.1111/faf.12818

Lindmark M., M. Karlsson, A. Gårdmark (2023)
Larger but younger fish when growth outpaces mortality in heated ecosystem
eLife, 12:e82996. May 9, 2023
https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.82996

Lindmark M., S. C. Anderson, M. Gogina, M. Casini (2023)
Evaluating drivers of spatiotemporal variability in individual condition of a bottom-associated marine fish, Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua)
ICES Journal of Marine Science, Volume 80, Issue 5, July 2023, Pages 1539–1550
https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsad084

Campana, S.E., S. Smoliński, B.A. Black, J. R. Morrongiello, S.J. Alexandroff, C. Andersson, B. Bogstad, P.G. Butler, C. Denechaud, and D.C. Frank (2023)
Growth portfolios buffer climate‐linked environmental change in marine systems
Ecology, 104, e3918. March, 2023
https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.3918

Jenkins, G. P., R. A. Coleman, J. S. Barrow, and J. R. Morrongiello (2022)
Environmental drivers of fish population dynamics in an estuarine ecosystem of south-eastern Australia
Fisheries Management and Ecology, 29, 693-707. October, 2022
https://doi.org/10.1111/fme.12559

Woods H. A., A. L. Moran, D. Atkinson, A. Audzijonyte, M. Berenbrink, F. O. Borges, K. G. Burnett, L. E. Burnett, C. J. Coates, R. Collin, E. M. Costa-Paiva, M. I. Duncan, R. Ern, E. M. J. Laetz, L. A. Levin, M. Lindmark, N. M. Lucey, L. R. McCormick, J. J. Pierson, R. Rosa, M. R. Roman, E. Sampaio, P. M. Schulte, E. A. Sperling, A. Walczyńska, and W.C. Verberk (2022)
Integrative approaches to understanding organismal responses to aquatic deoxygenation
The Biological Bulletin, Volume 243, Number 2, 85-103. October, 2022
https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/722899

Audzijonyte A., E. Jakubavičiūtė, M. Lindmark, and S. A. Richards (2022)
Mechanistic temperature-size rule explanation should reconcile physiological and mortality responses to temperature
The Biological Bulletin, Volume 243, Number 2, 220-238. October, 2022
https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/722027

Lindmark M., A. Audzijonyte, J. L. Blanchard, and A. Gårdmark (2022)
Temperature impacts on fish physiology and resource abundance lead to faster growth but smaller fish sizes and yields under warming
Global change biology, 28, 6239-6253. July, 2022
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16341

Wootton, H. F., J. R. Morrongiello, T. Schmitt, and A. Audzijonyte (2022)
Smaller adult fish size in warmer water is not explained by elevated metabolism
Ecology Letters, 25:1177-1188. May, 2022
https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13989

Peter van der Sleen, P., P. A. Zuidema, J. Morrongiello, J. L. J. Ong, R. R. Rykaczewski, W. J. Sydeman, E. Di Lorenzo, and B. A. Black (2022)
Interannual temperature variability is a principal driver of low-frequency fluctuations in marine fish populations
Communications Biology 5, 28. 11 January, 2022
https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-021-02960-y

Morrongiello, J. R., P. L. Horn, C. Ó Maolagáin, and P. J. H. Sutton (2021)
Synergistic effects of harvest and climate drive synchronous somatic growth within key New Zealand fisheries
Global Change Biology, 27,1470-1484. April, 2021
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15490

Wootton, H. F., A. Audzijonyte, and J. Morrongiello (2021)
Multigenerational exposure to warming and fishing causes recruitment collapse, but size diversity and periodic cooling can aid recovery
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118, e2100300118. 26 April, 2021
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2100300118

WG-45 PICES Members as of November 2024
Dr. Sean C. Anderson
Fisheries and Oceans Canada
3190 Hammond Bay Rd
Nanaimo, British Columbia
Canada V9T 6N7
sean.anderson@dfo-mpo.gc.ca

Dr. Kunihiro Fujiwara
Fisheries Resources Institute
Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency (FRA)
1-5939-22 Suido-cho, Chuo-ku
Niigata, Japan 951-8121
fujikuni@affrc.go.jp

Prof. Shin-ichi Ito
WG-45 PICES Co-Chair
Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute
The University of Tokyo
5-1-5 Kashiwanoha
Kashiwa, Chiba
Japan 277-8564
goito@aori.u-tokyo.ac.jp

Dr. Takeshi Tomiyama
Graduate School of Integrated Sciences for Life
Hiroshima University
1-4-4 Kagamiyama
Higashi-hiroshima, Hiroshima, Japan 739-8528
tomiyama@hiroshima-u.ac.jp

Dr. Yue Jin
Yellow Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences
No.106, Nanjing Rd
Qingdao, Shandong
People's Republic of China 266071
jinyue@ysfri.ac.cn

Dr. Shuyang Ma
Fishery College
Ocean University of China
5 Yushan Rd.
Qingdao, Shandong
People's Republic of China 266003
mashuyang@ouc.edu.cn

Prof. Yongjun Tian
College of Fisheries
Ocean Univeristy of China
5 Yushan Rd.
Qingdao, Shandong
People's Republic of China 266003
yjtian@ouc.edu.cn

Dr. Melissa A. Haltuch
Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NMFS, NOAA
7600 Sand Point Way N.E., Building 4
Seattle, WA
U.S.A. 98115
melissa.haltuch@noaa.gov

Prof. Saang Yoon Hyun
Marine Biology
Pukyong National University
45 Yongso-Ro Nam-Gu
Busan, R Korea 48513
shyunuw@gmail.com

Dr. Paul Spencer
WG-45 PICES Co-Chair
Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NMFS, NOAA
7600 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, WA
U.S.A. 98115
paul.spencer@noaa.gov

Dr. Christine Corlett Stawitz
Office of Science and Technology
NOAA Fisheries
1600 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, WA
U.S.A. 98115
christine.stawitz@noaa.gov