Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries: Forecasting Impacts, Assessing Ecosysem Responses, and Evaluating Management Strategies
April 26-29, 2010, Sendai, Japan

Scope

Climate change will have many impacts on marine ecosystems, and on human uses of them. Improved scientific support for policy and management decision-making in the face of these potential impacts is essential. In response to this need, interdisciplinary research teams have been formed around the world to analyze data and develop models to explore the likelihood and nature of future ecosystem states and strategies for sustainable use in these future states. To facilitate the advancement of this critical research, ICES, PICES and FAO are holding an international symposium. This symposium will provide a forum for scientists and policymakers to discuss the potential impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and our uses of these ecosystems, and to consider the strategies that society can take to be prepared for anticipated impacts. Quantitative studies of the potential impact of climate change on fish and fisheries throughout the world will be featured.

The symposium will:
  • provide a forum to discuss techniques for investigating the impacts of climate change on population parameters, distribution, migration, production, and/OR abundance of fish and shellfish in capture and cultured fisheries and on food web processes supporting fish and shellfish;
  • provide an opportunity for scientists to discuss their observational, analytical and modeling approaches with other research teams in order to stimulate methodological improvements;
  • allow experts to identify analytical techniques needed to reliably forecast climate change impacts on marine fish and shellfish populations including methods for quantifying the uncertainty in projections and ways to address the uncertainty in policy and management;
  • allow experts from diverse disciplines to discuss policies and strategies for society and users of marine resources to consider in the face of a changing climate and altered marine ecosystems.

Organizers

PRIMARY INTERNATIONAL SPONSORS

North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES)
International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES)
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

PRIMARY LOCAL SPONSORS

Fisheries Research Agency of Japan (FRA)
Hokkaido University Global Center of Excellence (COE) Program on “Establishment of Center for Integrated Field Environmental Science” (HUGCOE)

CO-SPONSORING ORGANIZATIONS

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO)
Integrated Climate System Analysis and Prediction, Germany (CLISAP)
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC)
International Pacific Halibut Commission (IPHC)
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)
Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute (KORDI)
National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility: Adaptation Research Network for Marine Biodiversity and Resources (NCCARF)
National Institute of Environmental Studies, Japan (NIES)
National Marine Fisheries Service of NOAA (NMFS)
North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission (NPAFC)
North Pacific Research Board (NPRB)
Pacific Salmon Foundation (PSF)
Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR)
Sendai Tourism and Convention Bureau (STCB)
The World Bank (WB)

ENDORSING ORGANIZATIONS

Fisheries Agency, Japan (JFA)
Newspaper Company “The Kahoku Shimpo”
The Japanese Society of Fisheries Oceanography (JSFO)
The Japanese Society of Fisheries Science (JSFS)
The Oceanography Society of Japan (JOS)

SYMPOSIUM CONVENORS

Anne Hollowed (Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NMFS/NOAA, U.S.A.)
Manuel Barange (GLOBEC International Project Office)
Shin-ichi Ito (Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, FRA, Japan)
Suam Kim (Pukyong National University, Republic of Korea)
Harald Loeng (Institute of Marine Research, Norway)

SCIENTIFIC STEERING COMMITTEE

The Scientific Steering Committee (SSC) is established mostly with members selected from the joint ICES/PICES Working Group on Forecasting Climate Change Impacts on Fish and Shellfish:

Jürgen Alheit (Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research, Germany)
Richard Beamish (Pacific Biological Station, DFO, Canada & NPAFC)
Keith Brander (National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark)
Kevern Cochrane (Fishery Resources Division, Food and Agricultural Organization)
Kenneth Drinkwater (Institute of Marine Research, Norway)
Michael Foreman (Institute of Ocean Science, DFO, Canada)
Jonathan Hare (Northeast Fisheries Science Center, NMFS/NOAA, U.S.A.)
Jason Holt (Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, UK)
Jacquelynne King (Pacific Biological Station, DFO, Canada)
Franz Mueter (School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, U.S.A.)
Carl O'Brien (Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, UK)
Thomas Okey (Pew Fellow / UVic / Bamfield Marine Station, Canada)
Myron Peck (Center for Marine and Climate Research, University of Hamburg, Germany)
Valdimir Radchenko (Sakhalin Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography, Russia)
Jake Rice (Ecosystem Science Directorate, DFO, Canada)
Yasuhiro Yamanaka (Hokkaido University, Japan)
Akihiko Yatsu (Seikai National Fisheries Research Institute, FRA, Japan)

SYMPOSIUM ORGANIZING COMMITTEE

Members of the Symposium Organizing Committee (SOC) represent contributing organizations. The current membership includes:

Jürgen Alheit (IOC)
Alexander Bychkov (PICES)
Cassandra de Young (FAO)
Yukimasa Ishida (FRA, Japan; NPAFC)
Adolf Kellermann (ICES)
Yukihiro Nojiri (NIES)
Yasuhiro Yamanaka (Hokkaido University, Japan)

LOCAL ORGANIZERS

Host: Fisheries Research Agency of Japan (FRA)
Local arrangements: Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute (TNFRI), FRA

Members of the Local Organizing Committee (LOC):
Yukimasa Ishida
Manpei Shuzuki
Hiroyasu Adachi
Katsumi Yokouchi
Shin-ichi Ito

Speakers

(Last update - January 27, 2010)
Changes: Tarub Bahri will make an Invited Talk in C1 Session on behalf of Kevern Cochrane

 P1-D1 Session (Day 1, Apr. 26)
Forecasting impacts: From climate to fish
 Kevin Trenberth (National Center for Atmospheric Research, NOAA, USA)
Akihiko Yatsu (Seikai National Fisheries Research Institute, FRA, Japan)
Randall Peterman (Simon Fraser University, Canada)

P2 Plenary Session (Day 1, Apr. 26)
Forecasting impacts: From fish to markets
 Eddie Allison (WorldFish, Malaysia)
Rashid Sumaila (Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia, Canada)

A1 Session (Day 2, Apr. 27)
Downscaling variables from global models
 Icarus Allen (Plymouth Marine Laboratory, UK)
Muyin Wang (University of Washington, USA)

B1 Session (Day 2, Apr. 27)
Assessing ecosystem responses: Impacts on community structure, biodiversity, energy flow and carrying capacity
 Beth Fulton (CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Australia)
Jeff Polovina (Pacific Island Fisheries Science Center, NMFS/NOAA, USA)

A2 Session (Day 2 and Day 3, Apr. 26 and Apr. 27)
Species-specific responses: Changes in growth, reproductive success, mortality, spatial distribution, and adaptation
 John Pinnegar (Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Studies, UK)
Hans-Otto Pörtner (Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany)

B2 Session (Day 2, Apr. 28)
Comparing responses to climate variability among nearshore, shelf and oceanic regions
 Nicholas Dulvy (Simon Fraser University, Canada)
Svein Sundby (Institute of Marine Research, Norway)

C1 Session (Day 3, Apr. 28)
Impacts on fisheries and coastal communities
 Tarub Bahri (Fishery Resources Division, Food and Agriculture Organization)
Ian Perry (Pacific Biological Station, DFO, Canada)

C2 Session (Day 3, Apr. 28)
Evaluating human responses, management strategies and economic implications
 Johann Bell (Policy and Planning Facility, Secretariat of the Pacific Community)
Bonnie McCay (Rutgers the State University, USA)

D2 Session (Day 3, Apr. 28)
Contemporary and next generation climate and oceanographic models, technical advances and new approaches
 Anand Gnanadesikan (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, USA)
Michio Kawamiya (JAMSTEC, Japan)

P3 Plenary Session (Day 4, Apr. 29)
Sustainable strategies in a warming climate
 Éva Plagányi-Lloyd (CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Australia)
Chang Ik Zhang (Pukyong National University, Korea)

Plenary Session Day 1

 
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Co-Convenors:
Anne Hollowed (Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NMFS/NOAA, USA)
Suam Kim (Pukyong National University, Korea)

 

Kevin E. Trenberth
The Earth’s climate system: Variability and change (Plenary-6063)
   

Akihiko Yatsu
Effects of climate change on marine ecosystems around Japan: Implications for sustainable fisheries (Plenary-6127)
(pdf, 2.8 Mb)

   

Ussif Rashid Sumaila and William L. Cheung
Cost of adapting global marine fisheries to climate change (Plenary-6029)

   

Edward H. Allison
Climate change in perspective: The global drivers of change in fisheries (Plenary-6413)
(pdf, 2 Mb)

 

  

Theme Session P1-D1
Forecasting impacts: From climate to fish

 
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Co-Convenors:
Kenneth Drinkwater (Institute of Marine Research, Norway)
Harald Loeng (Institute of Marine Research, Norway)
 Yasuhiro Yamanaka (Hokkaido University, Japan)
Franz J. Mueter (School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA)
 Carl O’Brien (Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, UK)
Graham Pilling (Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, UK)

This session will focus on the impacts of future climate change on the physical oceanography, biogeochemistry, and food webs of the world oceans. This includes contributions on appropriate methods for determining impact projections and estimating levels of uncertainty as well as actual development of ecosystem scenarios. Presentations will address downscaling from global models and the problems involved to produce regional future climate and physical oceanographic scenarios, scenarios of climate-induced changes in nutrient dynamics and other biogeochemical processes, changes in ecosystem community structure and function from phytoplankton and zooplankton through to fish populations, including changes in production and distribution and their influence upon biodiversity.

 

James E. Overland, Andrew Bakun, Jürgen Alheit, James Hurrell, David Mackas and Arthur Miller (presented by Nicholas Bond)
Match/mismatch of fish population changes to climate events (P1-D1-6045)
(pdf, 1 Mb)

   

Chan Joo Jang and Sinjae Yoo
Change in the North Pacific mixed layer depth and its impact on primary production in a warming world (P1-D1-6315)
Permission to post denied. Contact Author for presentation

   

William L. Cheung, John P. Dunne, Jorge Sarmiento and Daniel Pauly
Integrating eco-physiology and plankton dynamics into projected global changes in marine biodiversity and maximum catch potential under climate change (P1-D1-6105)
(waiting for permission)

   

Teruhisa Komatsu, Masahiro Fukuda, Atsuko Mikami, Yutaka Kokubu, Shizuha Mizuno, Hideaki Tanoue and Michio Kawamiya
Possible change in distribution of seaweed, Sargassum horneri , in East Asia under A2 scenario of global warming and its impact on fishes (P1-D1-6089)
Pending

   

Stewart Frusher, Gretta Pecl, Caleb Gardner, Marcus Haward, Alistair J. Hobday, Sarah Jennings, Melissa Nursey-Bray, André E. Punt, Hilary Revill and Ingrid van Putten
Fisheries and ecosystems in a changing climate: A case study on the Tasmanian east coast lobster fishery (P1-D1-6313)
(pdf, 1.8 Mb)

   

George L. Hunt, Jr., Lisa B. Eisner, Edward W. Farley, Jamal H. Moss, Jeffrey M. Napp and Phyllis J. Stabeno
The oscillating control hypothesis: Reassessment in view of new information from the eastern Bering Sea (P1-D1-6036)
(pdf, 1.2 Mb)

   

Roy Mendelssohn (presented by Frank Shwing)
State-space analysis of ocean and atmospheric data for use in forecasting ecological impacts of climate change (P1-D1-6387)
(pdf, 1.4 Mb)

   

Myron A. Peck, Patricia Reglero, Motomitsu Takahashi and Ignacio A. Catalán
Life cycle ecophysiology of small pelagic fish: Environmental thresholds and climate-driven changes in populations (P1-D1-6292)
(pdf, 1.8 Mb)

   

Jonathan A. Hare, Mark J. Wuenschel and Matthew E. Kimball
Larval dispersal, overwinter mortality, and climate change: Forecasting range shifts of a sub-tropical fish species in a western boundary current system (P1-D1-6195)
(pdf, 0.9 Mb)

   

Pierre Fréon, David M. Checkley, Jr. and Francisco E. Werner
Climate change and small pelagic fish: A review and recommendations (P1-D1-6308)
(pdf, 1.2 Mb)

   

Shin-ichi Ito, Takeshi Okunishi, Michio J. Kishi and Muyin Wang
Potential impact of climate change on Pacific saury (P1-D1-6266)
(pdf, 0.7 Mb)

   

Kenneth A. Rose, Enrique N. Curchitser, Kate Hedström, Jerome Fiechter, Miguel Bernal, Shin-ichi Ito, Salvador Lluch-Cota, Bernard A. Megrey, Christopher A. Edwards, David M. Checkley, Jr., Alec MacCall, Tony Koslow, Sam McClatchie, Kenneth L. Denman and Francisco E. Werner
Development of a climate-to-fish-to-fishers model: Proof-of-principle using long-term population dynamics of anchovies and sardines in the California Current (P1-D1-6106)
(pdf, 2.3 Mb)

   

Randall M. Peterman (Invited)
Uncertainties about climatic change and Pacific salmon: Risk assessment, risk communication, and risk management (P1-D1-6052)
(pdf, 0.2 Mb)

   

Anna Gardmark, Stefan Neuenfeldt, Martin Lindegren, Thorsten Blenckner, Eero Aro, Outi Heikinheimo, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Susa Niiranen, Maciej Tomczak, Anieke van Leeuwen, Anders Wikström and Christian Möllmann
Biological ensemble modelling of climate impacts – Improving fisheries science and management by accounting for uncertainty (P1-D1-6301)
(pdf, 0.4 Mb)

   

Franz J. Mueter, Nicholas A. Bond, Anne B. Hollowed, Carol Ladd and Enrique N. Curchitser
Future recruitment of Bering Sea walleye pollock. Part I: Retrospective patterns and uncertainty (P1-D1-6214)
(pdf, 0.4 Mb)

   

Nicholas A. Bond, Franz J. Mueter, Anne B. Hollowed, Carol Ladd and Muyin Wang
Future recruitment of Bering Sea walleye pollock. Part II: Ranges in key environmental parameters from global climate model forecasts (P1-D1-6068)
(pdf, 1.2 Mb)

   

Hiroshi Yoshinari, Tomonori Azumaya, Tetsuichiro Funamoto, Akira Kusaka, Orio Yamamura and Akira Nishimura
Numerical simulations of spatio-temporal distribution of juvenile walleye pollock around Hidaka Bay (P1-D1-6183)
(pdf, 0.4 Mb)

   

Jon Brodziak, Kevin Piner and Dean Courtney
Modeling recruitment responses of striped marlin ( Tetrapturus audax ) and swordfish ( Xiphias gladius ) to environmental variability in the North Pacific (P1-D1-6396)
(pdf, 1.3 Mb)

   

Kerim Aydin, Nicholas A. Bond, Enrique N. Curchitser, Georgina A. Gibson, Kate Hedström, Albert J. Hermann and Ivonne Ortiz
Integrating data, fieldwork, and models into an ecosystem-level forecasting synthesis: The modeling challenge of the Bering Ecosystem Study/Bering Sea Integrated Research Program (BEST-BSIERP) (P1-D1-6215)
(waiting for permission)

   

Julia L. Blanchard, Nicholas K. Dulvy, Robert Holmes, Manuel Barange and Simon Jennings
Potential climate change impacts on fish production from 20 large marine ecosystems around the world (P1-D1-6275)
(waiting for permission)

 

  

Theme Session P2
Forecasting impacts: From fish to markets

 
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Co-Convenors:
Manuel Barange (GLOBEC International Project Office)
Jacquelynne King (Pacific Biological Station, DFO, Canada)
Adolf Kellermann (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea)
Ian Perry (Pacific Biological Station, DFO, Canada)

 

Climate change direct impacts on marine populations will alter the provision of food from our oceans to our markets. At the same time, the on-going process of economic globalization will modify or exacerbate the vulnerability of fish production systems to climate change at global, regional and local level. Policy and management agencies will require scientific advice on the potential impacts that climate change (and its associated economic developments) will have on the availability of fish populations to fisheries, markets and consumers. This session will focus on (1) forecasting changes in marine population dynamics as they relate to fisheries (e.g., impacts on catchability or maximum sustainable yield), to processing and market demands (e.g., changes in size-at-age), to market forces (e.g., changes in price and trade) and to food security (e.g., collective vulnerability analysis); (2) quantifying the uncertainty of these forecasts in risk assessment frameworks useful to resource managers; and (3) exploring the interactivity between the ecosystem and market dynamics.

 

Gorka Merino, Manuel Barange, Christian Mullon, Robert Holmes, Julia L. Blanchard and Lynda Rodwell
Global environmental change scenarios for the world’s small pelagic fisheries and global fishmeal and oil markets (P2-6119)
(pdf, 1.4 Mb)

   

Gakushi Ishimura, Samuel Herrick and Ussif Rashid Sumaila
Can there be stable, cooperative exploitation of a transboundary fish stock under climate variability? A game analysis on the Pacific sardine fishery in the California Current (P2-6290)
(pdf, 1.4 Mb)

   

Timothy Pickering, Ben Ponia, Cathy Hair, Paul Southgate, Elvira S. Poloczanska, Luc Della Patrona, Antoine Teitelbaum, C.V. Mohan and Michael Phillips
Vulnerability of aquaculture to climate change in the Pacific (P2-6398)
(waiting for permission)

   

Alan Haynie and Lisa Pfeiffer
Modeling fleet behavior in the Bering Sea pollock fishery under climate change (P2-6359)
Permission to post denied. Contact Author for presentation

   

Marie-Caroline Badjeck and Tania Mendo Aguilar Wosnitza
Scenarios for the future: Drivers of change in the Peruvian fisheries sector (P2-6367)
(pdf, 1.1 Mb)

   

Ana Norman-López and Sean Pascoe
The effect of climate change on fishing behaviour in the Eastern Tuna and Billfish Fishery (P2-6071)
(waiting for permission)

   

Ussif Rashid Sumaila, William L. Cheung and Vicky W.Y. Lam
Impact of climate change on marine resources food security and local economies in West African countries (P2-6230)
(waiting for permission)

   

Maria A. Gasalla, R. Pincinato and I. Belkin
Ocean proxies for seafood market variability in the South Brazil Bight (P2-6386)
(waiting for permission)

 

  

Plenary Session Day 4
Sustainable strategies in a warming climate

 
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Co-Convenors:
Anne B. Hollowed (Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NMFS/NOAA, USA)
Michael J. Schirripa (Southeast Fisheries Science Center, NMFS/NOAA, USA)

 
Many nations have adopted a goal of building sustainable fisheries. Traditionally, this goal has been pursued through the adoption of precautionary harvest policies that are based on the expected productivity of the stock in a future environmental state. However, these harvest policies seldom explicitly consider how possible future climate change may modify critical aspects of the productivity of the stock. At the single species level, climate change could significantly influence the carrying capacity, the reproductive potential, as well as the spatial distribution of the stock. At the multi-species level, climate change may alter the abundance of competitors and predators of species targeted for fishing. Societal changes in the consumption of fish and policies regarding marine ranching and aquaculture may also change the economic factors governing fisheries. This session is intended to explore the future of fish and fisheries under a changing climate. The focus will be on examples of management strategies that could be applied to sustain fisheries under a changing climate and techniques for assessing and forecasting the performance of harvest policies under changing climate. This session is also open to new and novel modeling techniques designed to take into account an uncertain future and/or non-equilibrium conditions in fish, fishing fleets, management, and the marketing of seafood products. This could range from how future fishing vessels may be outfitted to best adapt to a changing climate to how traditional management benchmarks and concepts (maximum sustainable yield, minimum stock size threshold, etc.) could be modified or updated to take climate change into account. Inventive ways to circumvent or adapt to the forecasted impacts of climate change and the uncertainty surrounding it are also of interest.
 

Chang Ik Zhang and Jae Bong Lee (Invited)
Impacts of climate changes and a pragmatic ecosystem-based approach for assessing and forecasting harvest policies under changing climate in Korea (P3-6212)

   

Éva Plagányi, Scarla Weeks, Tim Skewes, Mark Gibbs, Elvira S. Poloczanska Ana Norman-López, Laura Blamey, Muri Soares and William Robinson (Invited)
Assessing the adequacy of current fisheries management under changing climate (P3-6073)
Permission to post denied

   

Jennifer L. Nielsen, Gregory T. Ruggerone, Christian E. Zimmerman and Jamal H. Moss
Sustainable strategies in a warming climate: Salmon in the Arctic (P3-5996)

   

Anne B. Hollowed, Nicholas Bond, Alan Haynie, James N. Ianelli and Franz J. Mueter
Scenario based models for predicting stakeholder responses to a changing climate: A case study for the Eastern Bering Sea (P3-6240)

   

James N. Ianelli
The challenges of developing fisheries stock assessment approaches, harvest control rules, and management strategies to satisfy and adapt to increasingly complex management objectives in a changing environment (P3-6391)

 

 

Gretta Pecl, Alistair J. Hobday, Stewart Frusher, Warwick Sauer and participants of Workshop 5
Networking across global marine ‘hotspots’ (P3-6335)

   

Michael J. Schirripa, Rebecca J. Allee, Russell H. Beard, Stephanie Oakes, Bonnie J. Ponwith, Rebecca Shuford and Roger J. Zimmerman
An approach to an Integrated Ecosystem Assessment of the Gulf of Mexico (P3-6414)

   

Yi-Jay Chang, Chi-Lu Sun, Yong Chen and Su-Zan Yeh
Incorporating climate changes into population dynamic modelling: an individual-based modelling approach for the pronghorn spiny lobster (Panulirus penicullatus) in eastern Taiwan (P3-6316)

   

Masahide Kaeriyama, Hyunju Seo and Michio J. Kishi
Sustainable fisheries management of Pacific salmon in a warming climate (P3-6136)

 

Theme Session A1
Downscaling variables from global models

 
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Co-Convenors:
Michael Foreman (Institute of Ocean Sciences, DFO, Canada)
Jason Holt (Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, UK)

 
Analyses and summaries recently presented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate that many of the dramatic changes observed in the circulation and physical characteristics of the oceans over the past century will continue in the future. As one of the major limitations of the global climate models that are used to estimate these future projections is their relatively coarse resolution, statistical or dynamical downscaling is often needed to provide sufficient spatial detail in the variables of interest. This session will address the downscaling of global climate model variables relevant to marine ecosystems, with emphasis on (1) downscaling techniques and/or their application to particular regions or variables, and (2) analysis of global climate model projections, or results from higher-resolution regional ocean, or coupled atmosphere-ocean models that are forced by, and take their boundary conditions from, global climate models.
 

Muyin Wang, James E. Overland and Nicholas A. Bond (Invited)
Examples of using global climate models for regional marine ecosystem projection (A1-6050)
Permission to post denied. Contact Author for presentation

   

J. Icarus Allen (Invited)
Shelf seas ecosystems: Past, present and future states (A1-6062)
(pdf, 2 Mb)

   

Masao Kurogi, Hiroyasu Hasumi and Yukio Tanaka
Kuroshio path variation studied by a nested-grid OGCM (A1-6342)
(pdf, 1.3 Mb)

   

Robert Holmes, James Harle, J. Icarus Allen, Jason Holt and Manuel Barange
Predicting impacts of climate change on primary production in coastal-ocean regions (A1-6190)
(waiting for permission)

   

Jason Holt, James Harle, Rob Holmes and J. Icarus Allen
Potential climate change impacts on contrasting shelf sea regions: Atmospheric and oceanic impacts vs. tidal and seasonal constraints (A1-6294)
(waiting for permission)

   

Enrique N. Curchitser, William Large, Kate Hedström and Jon Wolf
Downscaling climate simulations in the North Pacific Ocean using a fully coupled multi-scale model (A1-6107)
(waiting for presentation)

   

Hiroshi Kuroda, Takashi Setou, Manabu Shimizu and Kazuhiro Aoki
Dynamical downscaling from the basin scale to submesoscale with a triply nested ocean model (A1-6293)
(pdf, 2 Mb)

   

Talgat R. Kilmatov and Elena V. Dmitrieva
Climatic structural stability of the Kuroshio Extension jet and catastrophe theory (A1-6038)
(pdf, 0.7 Mb)

   

Albert J. Hermann, Kerim Aydin, Nicholas A. Bond, Wei Cheng, Enrique N. Curchitser, Georgina A. Gibson, Kate Hedström, Ivonne Ortiz, Muyin Wang and Phyllis J. Stabeno
Simulated modes of biophysical variability on the Bering Sea shelf (A1-6375)
(pdf, 1.5 Mb)

   

Huaming Yu, Thomas Pohlmann, Xianwen Bao and Xueen Chen
Tidal current effects on the simulation of ocean circulation by theoretical and numerical analyses (A1-6264)
(waiting for permission)

   

Alexandra V. Temnykh, Yuriy N. Tokarev and Viktor V. Melnikov
The Black Sea zooplankton-climate connection: A multi-scale approach and new methods (A1-6017)
(waiting for permission)

   

Michael Foreman, Badal Pal, William Merryfield, Diane Masson and John Morrison
Toward a regional climate model for the British Columbia continental shelf (A1-6069)
(pdf, 2 Mb)

   

Elena I. Ustinova
Evaluation of potential limitations for statistical downscaling in the Far-Eastern Seas (A1-6393)
(waiting for permission)

 

  

Theme Session A2
Species-specific responses: Changes in growth, reproductive success, mortality, spatial distribution, and adaptation

 
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Co-Convenors:
Richard Beamish (Pacific Biological Station, DFO, Canada)
Myron Peck (Center for Marine and Climate Research, University of Hamburg, Germany)
Motomitsu Takahashi (Seikai National Fisheries Research Institute, FRA, Japan)

 
Climate is now recognized as a major factor affecting the productivity of key species in world fisheries. The mechanisms that link climate to fish productivity need to be better understood to ensure that natural and greenhouse gas induced climate changes are incorporated into the management of fisheries. Population-level changes in commercially and ecologically important marine fish species may result from climate-driven changes in organismal-level vital rates (e.g., changes in growth, reproductive success and mortality). Furthermore, expansion, contraction and/or shifts in the distribution of fish stocks will result from changes in suitable habitats (habitats that allow connectivity among life stages, life cycle closure and successful recruitment). The extent of climate-driven changes will be mediated by the capacity for individual species (or populations) to adapt to changes in important abiotic and biotic factors. Adaptations could include both changes in the phenology of important life history events (e.g., migration, spawning) and/or physiological changes (e.g., thermal reaction norms of key traits such as growth, increased tolerance to lowered pH/ocean acidification). This session provides a forum for presentations focusing on the response of key fish and fisheries species worldwide to climate change by:
(1) documenting historical, long-term fluctuations in abundance and distribution, (2) discussing processes underlying current changes, and/or (3) projecting future impacts in light of adaptive capacity. Key fisheries species include those utilizing marine habitats during any portion of their life cycle and that are commercially or ecologically important marine resources.
 

Hans-O. Pörtner (Invited)
Oxygen- and capacity-limitation of thermal tolerance: A matrix for integrating climate-related stressor effects in marine ecosystems (A2-6085)
(pdf, 1.5 Mb)

   

Olav Sigurd Kjesbu, Jon Egil Skjæraasen, David Righton, Kathrine Michalsen, Christian Jørgensen, Anders Frugård Opdal and Peter R. Witthames
Climate effects on maturation and spawning of Atlantic cod and implications for fisheries (A2-6099)
(pdf, 0.6 Mb)

   

So Kawaguchi, Haruko Kurihara, Robert King, Lillian Hale, Thomas Berli, James Robinson, Patti Virtue, Stephen Nicol and Atsushi Ishimatsu
An experimental assessment of effects of raised pCO2 on early-larval Antarctic krill (A2-6153)
(waiting for permission)

   

Jun Shoji, Masakazu Hori, Yasuhiro Kamimura, Ken-ichiro Mizuno and Shun-ichi Toshito
Fish production in coastal habitats under global warming: Spatio-temporal variability in early growth of a dominant species, black rockfish, in seagrass beds (A2-6090)
Permission to post denied. Contact Author for presentation

   

Frida Ben Rais Lasram , Francois Guilhaumon, Samuel Somot, Wilfried Thuiller and David Mouillot
The Mediterranean Sea as a trap for endemic fishes facing climate change (A2-6020)
(pdf, 0.6 Mb)

   

John K. Pinnegar, Georg Engelhard, Julia L. Blanchard, Joe Scutt-Phillips and William L. Cheung (Invited)
How has climate change impacted marine food-webs in the past, and how might we predict changes in the future? (A2-6362)
(pdf, 3 Mb)

   

Louis W. Botsford, Matthew D. Holland, Alan Hastings, Michael J. Fogarty, Francis Juanes and Hui-Yu Wang
The effects of fish life histories on time scales of response to environmental change (A2-6109)
(pdf, 1.2 Mb)

   

Remment ter Hofstede and Adriaan D. Rijnsdorp
Disentangling the effects of fisheries and climate change on fish communities (A2-6080)
(pdf, 0.8 Mb)

   

Manuel Hidalgo, Valerio Bartolino, Santiago Cerviño, Angélique Jadaud, Enric Massutí, Fran Saborido-Rey, Marina Santurtún and Nils Christian Stenseth
Comparative study of fishing-induced juvenescence effects under different climatic and fishing harvesting scenarios (A2-6145)
(waiting for permission)

   

J. Marti Pujolar, D. Bevacqua, M. Andrello and L. Zane
Bringing together molecular genetics and population dynamics modelling: Disentangling the influence of fisheries and climate variation in the endangered European eel (A2-6034)
(waiting for permission)

   

Yongjun Tian, Hideaki Kidokoro, Tatsuro Watanabe, Yosuke Igeta, Hideo Sakaji and Ken Watanabe
Response of yellowtail Seriola quinqueradiata in the Japan Sea to sea water temperature over the last century and potential effect of global warming (A2-6115)
(pdf, 0.9 Mb)

   

Adriaan D. Rijnsdorp, Ralf van Hal, Marc Hufnagl, Richard D.M. Nash, Alexander Schroeder, Lorna R. Teal, Ingrid Tulp, Rob Witbaard, Doug Beare and Henk W. van der Veer
Key mechanism determining the impact of climate change on the productivity and fisheries of North Sea plaice, Pleuronectes platessa L. (A2-6258)
(pdf, 1 Mb)

   

Michele Casini, Valerio Bartolino, Juan Carlos Molinero and Georgs Kornilovs
Linking climate, trophic interactions and fisheries: Threshold dynamics drive herring (Clupea harengus) growth in the central Baltic Sea (A2-6345)
(pdf, 0.4 Mb)

   

Kuo-Wei Lan, Ming-An Lee and Hsueh-Jung Lu
A study on yellowfin tuna ( Thunnus albacares ) stocks and fishing conditions in relation to oceanic environmental variation in the Atlantic Ocean (A2-6171)
(waiting for permission)

   

Nan-Jay Su, Chi-Lu Sun, André E. Punt and Su-Zan Yeh
Impacts of climate change on the distribution of blue marlin (Makaira nigricans) as inferred from data for longline fisheries in the Pacific Ocean (A2-6295)
(pdf, 2.5 Mb)

   

Barbara Muhling, Sang-Ki Lee, Michael J. Schirripa, Walter Ingram and John Lamkin
Predicting the effects of climate change on bluefin tuna ( Thunnus thynnus ) spawning habitat in the Gulf of Mexico (A2-6032)
(pdf, 1.8 Mb)

   

Melanie Abecassis, Patrick Lehodey, Inna Senina and Jeffrey J. Polovina
Swordfish population dynamics in the Pacific Ocean (A2-6110)
(pdf, 0.7 Mb)

   

Yury I. Zuenko, Lydmila A. Chernoivanova, Alexander N. Vdovin and Elena I. Ustinova
Climate change effect on the saffron cod Eleginus gracilis reproduction, stock, and fishery in the Japan Sea (A2-6227)
(pdf, 0.5 Mb)

   

Z. Teresa A’mar, André E. Punt and Grant G. Thompson
Incorporating climate variability into the assessment of Gulf of Alaska Pacific cod (A2-6239)
(pdf, 0.4 Mb)

   

Rüdiger Voss, Hans-Harald Hinrichsen, Jörn O. Schmidt and Martin F. Quaas
Spatially resolved impact of temperature change on recruitment of sprat and cod in the Baltic Sea – From observation to bio-economic modeling (A2-6202)
(pdf, 0.8 Mb)

   

Bernard A. Megrey, Kenneth A. Rose, Jacob F. Schweigert, Douglas Hay, Francisco E. Werner, Yasuhiro Yamanaka and Shin-ichi Ito
Geographic variation in Pacific herring growth and population responses to regime shifts in the North Pacific basin (A2-6224)
(pdf, 0.5 Mb)

   

Eduardo Martins, Scott Hinch, David Patterson, Merran Hague, Steven Cooke, Kristina Miller, Michael Lapointe, Karl English and Anthony Farrell
Effects of river temperature and climate warming on stock-specific survival of adult migrating Fraser River sockeye salmon ( Oncorhynchus nerka ) (A2-6028)
(pdf, 0.6 Mb)

   

Hyunju Seo, Masa-aki Fukuwaka and Masahide Kaeriyama
Long-term fluctuations in somatic growth, survival, and population dynamics of Hokkaido chum salmon, Oncorhynchus keta , linking to climate changes (A2-6179)
(pdf, 1.2 Mb)

   

Juan L. Valero, Steven R. Hare and Bruce M. Leaman
Investigating the roles of climate, density-dependence and fishing on long-term and large-scale changes in recruitment, growth, maturity and distribution of Pacific halibut (A2-6173)
(waiting for permission)

   

Yasunori Sakurai, A.L. Rosa and J. Yamamoto
Past, present and future of Japanese common squid, T odarodes pacificus (Cephalopoda: Ommastrephidae) (A2-6156)
(pdf, 3.4 Mb)

   

Jacob F. Schweigert, Jennifer Boldt, Linnea Flostrand, Peter Olesiuk, Sherri Dressel and Ryan Watanabe
Differing response of herring stocks to ecosystem forcing in the California and Gulf of Alaska Current systems (A2-6250)
(waiting for permission)

   

Akinori Takasuka, Sam McClatchie, Ed Weber, Yoshioki Oozeki, Takahiko Kameda, Yuichi Hirota and Hiroshi Okamura
Responses of anchovy and sardine spawning to physical and biological factors in the Kuroshio and California Current systems: Interspecific and intersystem comparison (A2-6338)
(pdf, 2.5 Mb)

   

Janet A. Nye, Jason S. Link and Jonathan A. Hare
Climate-induced changes in distribution of Northwest Atlantic fish and invertebrates: Implications for management (A2-6196)
(pdf, 1.4 Mb)

   

Benjamin Planque, Edwige Bellier, Frida Ben Rais Lasram and Christophe Loots
Now you see me, now you don’t: Uncertainties in projecting future spatial distribution of marine populations (A2-6019)
(pdf, 0.9 Mb)

 

Theme Session B1
Assessing ecosystem responses: Impacts on community structure, biodiversity, energy flow and carrying capacity

 
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Co-Convenors:
Thomas Okey (Pew Fellow / UVic / Bamfield Marine Station, Canada)
Akihiko Yatsu (Seikai National Fisheries Research Institute, FRA, Japan)

 
Assessing effects of climate change on marine ecosystems (i.e., biological communities) is a major challenge, mainly because (1) future changes in physical forcing, such as water temperature, will exceed historically observed values, and (2) biological responses or adaptations to these changes are highly uncertain, particularly over a long time period. Changes in geographic ranges, vertical distributions, phenologies, population structures, and productivities will differ among individual species thereby altering the connectivities and functions of ecosystem components, including predator-prey relationships and competition, species assembly, community structure, biodiversity, energy flow, and carrying capacity. This session will focus on retrospective analyses of changes in freshwater, coastal, and offshore ecosystems/communities, experimental studies on species interactions under climate-change-related conditions, and conceptual and numerical modelling of ecosystems relevant to climate change.
 

Jeffrey J. Polovina, John P. Dunne, Phoebe Woodworth and Evan A. Howell (Invited)
Possible trends in North Pacific ecosystems over the 21st century based on output from a coupled climate, biogeochemical, and phytoplankton model (B1-6053)
(pdf, 0.9 Mb)

   

Hiroshi Sumata, Taketo Hashioka, Takeshi Okunishi, Masahito Shigemitsu, Maki N. Aita, Naoki Yoshie, Naosuke Okada, Takashi T. Sakamoto, Tatsuo Suzuki and Yasuhiro Yamanaka
Effects of climate forcing on the North Pacific Ocean ecosystem simulated using an eddy-permitting marine ecosystem model (B1-6167)
(waiting for permission)

   

Jeffrey M. Napp, George L. Hunt, Jr., Lisa B. Eisner, Edward W. Farley, Phyllis J. Stabeno, Alex Andrews and Atsushi Yamaguchi
The response of eastern Bering Sea zooplankton communities to climate fluctuations: Community structure, biodiversity, and energy flow to higher trophic levels (B1-6049)
(waiting for permission)

   

Hung-Yen Hsieh, Wen-Tseng Lo, Long-Jing Wu, Huang-Pin Chien, Deng-Cheng Liu and Wei-Cheng Su
Larval fish assemblages in the waters around Taiwan, western North Pacific: A comparison between, during and after the northeasterly monsoon (B1-6168)
(waiting for permission)

   

Nadezhda L. Aseeva and Alexander L. Figurkin
Changes of bottom ichthyocenosis structure on the shelf of west Kamchatka under changing environments in the last two decades (B1-6235)
(pdf, 0.5 Mb)

   

Rebecca G. Asch and David M. Checkley, Jr.
Climate change leads to earlier seasonal occurrence of larval fishes in the southern California Current (B1-6216)
Permission to post denied. Contact Author for presentation

   

William J. Sydeman, Bryan A. Black, Steven J. Bograd, Jeff Dorman, John C. Field, Kyra L. Mills, Stephen Ralston, T. Zack Powell, Jarrod A. Santora, Isaac D. Schroeder, Sarah Ann Thompson and Franklin B. Schwing
Ocean climate change and phenology: Effects on trophic synchrony and consequences to fish and seabirds in the northern-central California Current (B1-6220)
(pdf, 0.8 Mb)

   

Takafumi Hirata, Robert Brewin and Nick Hardman-Mountford
Global distribution of phytoplankton functional types estimated from satellite ocean colour (B1-6042)
(pdf, 1.9 Mb)

   

Gregory N. Nishihara and Ryuta Terada
A preliminary study of the effects of a wave exposure gradient on the species richness of marine macrophytes along the eastern rim of the East China Sea (B1-6279)
Permission to post denied. Contact Author for presentation

   

Sukgeun Jung, Young Shil Kang, Young-Sang Suh, Sukyung Kang and Yeong Gong
Climate-driven shifts in marine fish communities indicated by commercial catch statistics from Korean coastal waters (B1-6253)
(pdf, 2.2 Mb)

   

Hiroya Sugisaki, Kiyotaka Hidaka, Tadafumi Ichikawa, Yutaka Hiroe, Yuichi Hirota, Kenji Morinaga, Manabu Shimizu, Takahisa Tokunaga, Mikiko Kuriyama, Tomowo Watanabe and Kaoru Nakata
Interdisciplinary monitoring for the Kuroshio warm current ecosystem in relation to climate change (B1-6329)
(pdf, 1.1 Mb)

   

Hiroaki Saito, Shin-ichi Ito, Atsushi Kawabata, Mitsutaku Makino, Masami Nonaka, Takeshi Okunishi, Kazutaka Takahashi and Ichiro Yasuda
Understanding and forecasting of fish species alternation in the Kuroshio-Oyashio ecosystem: The SUPRFISH programme (B1-6101)
Permission to post denied. Contact Author for presentation

   

Elizabeth A. Fulton (Invited)
Interesting times (B1-6044)
(pdf, 1.5 Mb)

   

Rosamma Stephen
Decline in mackerel fishery along west coast of India and its relation to the diminishing density of an abundant upwelling copepod: A multi-decadal study (B1-6164)
(pdf, 1.2 Mb)

   

Sunil D. Ahirrao
Effect of climate change on fish and fisheries of Marathwada region of Maharashtra state (India) (B1-6336)
(waiting for permission)

   

Stephen D. Simpson, Mark P. Johnson, David W. Sims, Pieter-Jan Schön, Julia L. Blanchard, Simon Jennings and Martin J. Genner
Long-term climate-driven changes in UK marine fish communities (B1-6056)
Permission to post denied. Contact Author for presentation

   

Remment ter Hofstede , Jan Geert Hiddink and Adriaan D. Rijnsdorp
Global warming changes the species richness of marine fish in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean (B1-6078)
(pdf, 0.7 Mb)

   

Gabriel Reygondeau, Olivier Maury, Hervé Demarcq and Philippe Cury
Changes in the environmental factors controlling the global biogeography of tuna and billfish communities (B1-6305)
(pdf, 1.2 Mb)

   

Charles A. Stock and John P. Dunne
Modeling global patterns in the transfer of energy between primary producers and mesozooplankton in a global circulation model (B1-6366)
(pdf, 0.7 Mb)

   

Ryan R. Rykaczewski and John P. Dunne
Comparison of the ecosystem response to climate change in the mid-latitude North Pacific and California Current ecosystems (B1-6363)
(pdf, 1.3 Mb)

   

Evan A. Howell, John P. Dunne and Jeffrey J. Polovina
Modeling the central North Pacific ecosystem response to predicted climate variations and fishery management scenarios (B1-6061)
(pdf, 0.9 Mb)

   

William L. Cheung, Thomas A. Okey and Richard D. Brodeur
Projecting future change in pelagic nekton communities along the west coast of North America (B1-6276)
(pdf, 1.9 Mb)

   

Matthew T. Wilson, Christina M. Jump and Andre Buchheister
Ecology of small neritic fishes in the western Gulf of Alaska: Top-down mechanisms can moderate bottom-up forcing (B1-6081)
(pdf, 1.6 Mb)

   

Philip L. Munday , Danielle L. Dixson, Mark I. McCormick and Mark Meekan
Ocean acidification threatens the replenishment of reef fish populations (B1-6130)
Permission to post denied. Contact Author for presentation

   

Nicholas Graham, Pascale Chabanet, Richard Evans, Simon Jennings, Yves Letourneur, M. Aaron MacNeil, Tim McClanahan, Marcus Öhman, Nicholas Polunin and Charles Sheppard
Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes in response to climate change and fisheries exploitation (B1-6095)
Permission to post denied. Contact Author for presentation

   

Nam-Il Won, Tomohiko Kawamura, Hideki Takami, Hiroshi Hoshikawa and Yoshiro Watanabe
Comparison of benthic community structure in natural habitats of abalone Haliotis discus hannai affected by different current systems (B1-6328)
Permission to post denied. Contact Author for presentation

 

Theme Session B2
Comparing responses to climate variability among nearshore, shelf and oceanic regions

 
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Co-Convenors:
Jürgen Alheit (Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research, Germany)
Vladimir Radchenko (Sakhalin Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography, Russia)
Jae Bong Lee (Pukyong National University, Korea)

 
Over the last two decades, convincing evidence has been collected that global and regional climate variability is a strong driving force of changes in marine ecosystems (and the fish and shell fish populations embedded in them). Climate drivers influence near-shore, shelf and oceanic regions. However, the same climate signal may be correlated with different responses of marine populations among these regions, due to the different mechanisms by which climate variability impacts these communities and the role of human activities in modifying these mechanisms, particularly in near-shore areas. Whereas the effect of climate variability has been intensely studied in single marine systems or on single species/species groups across different systems, comparisons of climatic influences on coastal and oceanic systems are generally lacking. As marine ecosystems are not amenable to experimental investigations with respect to climate effects, comparative analyses are the best way to enhance our knowledge on the response of ecosystems and their populations. Ecosystem regime shifts and teleconnection patterns in the reaction of distant marine ecosystems towards climate impacts are important phenomena which help us to better understand responses to climate variability. The goal of this session is to (1) discuss the interactions, ramifications, and potential connections between climate variability and marine ecosystems, and (2) demonstrate the impact of climate variability with a view to future climate change.
 

Sean Lucey and Janet A. Nye
Shifting species assemblages within the Northeast US Large Marine Ecosystem (B2-6198)
(pdf, 0.6 Mb)

   

Rubén Rodríguez-Sánchez, Héctor Villalobos and Sofía Ortega-García
Spatial dynamics of small pelagic fish in the California Current system on the regime time-scale: Parallel processes in other species-ecosystems (B2-6163)
(pdf, 4 Mb)

   

Jae Bong Lee and Bernard A. Megrey
On the utility of self-organizing maps (SOM) and k-means clustering to characterize and compare low frequency spatial and temporal climate impacts on marine ecosystem productivity (B2-6225)
(pdf, 1 Mb)

   

Elvira S. Poloczanska, Keith Brander, Chris Brown, John Bruno, Lauren Buckley, Michael T. Burrows, Carlos Duarte, Pippa Moore, Mary O’Connor, John Pandolfi, Camille Parmesan, Maria Sanchez-Camacho, David Schoeman, William J. Sydeman and Anthony J. Richardson
Marine climate change impacts: Out of sight but not out of mind (B2-6278)
(pdf, 0.4 Mb)

   

Thomas A. Okey, Jameal F. Samhouri, Cameron H. Ainsworth, D. Shallin Busch and William L. Cheung
Potential impacts of climate change on Northeast Pacific marine ecosystems (B2-6261)
(waiting for permission)

   

Takashige Sugimoto and Masato Niki
Long-term variations in the catch of sergestid shrimp in Suruga Bay induced by variations in the Kuroshio path and climate regime shifts (B2-6392)
(waiting for permission)

   

Susa Niiranen, Thorsten Blenckner and Reinette Biggs
Are general mechanisms found behind regime shifts across marine ecosystems? (B2-6188)
(pdf, 0.8 Mb)

   

Nicholas K. Dulvy (Invited)
Housing crisis: Climate change-induced habitat loss impacts on temperate and tropical fishes (B2-6054)
(pdf, 1.7 Mb)

   

Lisa B. Eisner, Seth Danielson, Edward W. Farley, Jeanette Gann and Markus Janout
Spatial and interannual variability in oceanography, plankton and forage fish in the Bering Sea: Results from U.S. BASIS surveys for 2002-2008 (B2-6043)
(pdf, 1.7 Mb)

   

William T. Peterson, Cheryl Morgan, Hongsheng Bi and Jay O. Peterson
Zonal gradients in copepod community structure in shelf, slope and oceanic waters off Newport, Oregon, USA
(waiting for permission)

   

Miguel Ñiquen and Cecilia Peña
Response of dominant species in coastal and oceanic regions of Peru (B2-6296)
(pdf, 1 Mb)

   

Jürgen Alheit
The limits for forecasting fish population dynamics under changing climate scenarios: The example of small pelagic fishes (B2-6247)
(waiting for permission)

   

Konstantin Rogachev
Thermal limits and coastal migration of chum salmon ( Oncorhynchus keta ) determined by submesoscale circulation (B2-6023)
(pdf, 1.1 Mb)

   

Hideaki Kidokoro, Norio Yamashita, Tsuneo Goto and Yongjun Tian
Changes in the stock size and life history traits of Japanese common squid Todarodes pacificus in relation to climate changes, with special comparison between in the Kuroshio-Oyashio currents region and the Sea of Japan (B2-6228)
(waiting for permission)

   

Brian J. Rothschild
Coupling between multi-decadal transients in fish stock abundance and anthropogenic forcing (B2-6397)
Permission to post denied. Contact Author for presentation

 

Theme Session C1
Impacts on fisheries and coastal communities

 
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Co-Convenors:
Keith Brander (National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Denmark)
Suam Kim (Pukyong National University, Korea)
Eddie Allison (WorldFish Center, Malaysia on behalf of the Global Partnership on Climate, Fisheries and Aquaculture (PaCFA))

 
Climate change has had an impact on fisheries and coastal communities throughout history, due to environmentally driven fish stock fluctuations, changes in species distribution, extreme events and changes in sea-level. The survival of coastal communities depended on being able to cope with such changes, by altering their fishing practices or switching to alternative livelihoods. In many cases communities did not survive or suffered economic hardship and emigration. Although some adaptability can be expected in response to anthropogenic climate change, the new situation is different in a number of ways. The expected rate of change is rapid and in one direction; most fisheries are already under pressure from overfishing, habitat degradation and other sea and coastal uses; new pressures arise from sea-level rise and ocean acidification. This session will focus on forecasts of expected impacts of climate change on the coastal fish stocks and the communities that depend on them as well as strategies for survival under a changing climate.
 

R. Ian Perry, Manuel Barange, Francisco E. Werner, Eileen Hofmann and Rosemary Ommer (Invited)
Adapting marine social-ecological systems to a world of change: Lessons from the GLOBEC experience (C1-6210)
(pdf, 0.9 Mb)

   

Sujan Saha
Postlarvae fishing, biodiversity and livelihoods under climate change: A case study on southwest coastal community in Bangladesh (C1-6310)
(pdf, 0.4 Mb)

   

Eva Papaioannou, Athanasios Vafeidis, Jörn O. Schmidt and Martin F. Quaas
Modeling the spatial distribution of coastal fisheries of the Baltic Sea using Geographic Information Systems (C1-6340)
(pdf, 2.1 Mb)

   

Ming-An Lee, Kuo-Wei Lan, Kuo-Ten Lee and Yi Chang
Satellite observation on the cold water intrusion related to the exceptional fishery disaster during the ENSO events in the Taiwan Strait (C1-6174)
(pdf, 1.8 Mb)

   

Audrey J. Geffen, Arild Folkvord, Hans Høie, Anne Karin Hufthammer, Carin Andersson, Kjell Nedreaas and Ulysses S. Ninemann (presented by Mei-Yu Chang)
High latitude climate variability and its implications for fish resources as revealed by fossil otoliths of cod ( Gadus morhua ) (C1-6201)
(waiting for permission)

   

Tatiana Krupnova, Yury I. Zuenko, Vladimir Matveev, Irina Tsypysheva and Vladimir Pavlyuchkov
Reconstruction of bottom phytocenoses on the coast of Primorye caused by climate change (C1-6233)
(waiting for permission)

   

Kevern L. Cochrane, Tarub Bahri, Cassandra de Young and Doris Soto (Invited)
Evolution in an instant: Adaptation and resilience to climate change in fisheries (C1-6400)
(pdf, 0.6 Mb)

   

Akhmad Fauzi, Subandono Diposaptono and Suzy Anna
Socio-economic impacts of climate change on coastal communities: The case of the north coast of Java small-pelagic fisheries (C1-6124)
(pdf, 1 Mb)

   

Salvador Lluch-Cota, René Kachok and María Verónica Morales-Zárate
Reasons for high vulnerability of coastal fishing communities of Baja California (Mexico) and potential adaptation strategies to climate change (C1-6378)
(pdf, 1.2 Mb)

   

Jong Hee Lee, Jae Bong Lee, Young Min Choi and Chang Ik Zhang
Detecting decadal changes in marine environmental characteristics and fishery resources in Korean waters (C1-6166)
(waiting for permission)

   

Eider Andonegi, Jose Antonio Fernandes, Iñaki Quincoces, Xabier Irigoien, Daniel Howell and Gunnar Stefansson
The potential use of a Gadget model to predict stock responses to climate change in combination with Bayesian networks: The case of the Bay of Biscay anchovy (C1-6236)
(pdf, 2.4 Mb)

   

Asuncion De Guzman , Cesaria Jimenez, Angelo Macario, Juliet Madula and Jayrald Santamnina
Shifts in species abundance of sardine fisheries in southern Philippines: Early signs of vulnerability to climate change? (C1-6197)
(pdf, 1.4 Mb)

   

Nhung T.H. Nguyen and Hien T.H. Than
Challenge and opportunity of climate change: Case studies in Vietnamese coastal communities (C1-6304)
(pdf, 1 Mb)

 

Theme Session C2
Evaluating human response, management strategies and economic implications

 
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Co-Convenors:
Kevern Cochrane (Fishery Resources Division, Food and Agriculture Organization)
Jake Rice (Ecosystem Science Directorate, DFO, Canada)
Tarub Bahri (Fishery Resources Division, Food and Agriculture Organization)

 
Humans depend on the oceans for many goods and services essential to their well-being. As terrestrial and marine ecosystems change in response to climate, these dependencies are expected to become even greater, particularly, but hardly exclusively, for food security. This session will focus on how society, at a range of scales from community to population, might adapt to the changes expected in the oceans, and in the goods and services on which they depend so that optimal benefits may be obtained without unacceptable increases in the risks to the systems. Contributions from social scientists, economists, and policy experts are welcomed, as well as from natural scientists interested in strategies for sustainable use of marine resources in the face of changing human needs as well as changing ocean conditions. Just a few decades in the future, societies and governments may face very difficult choices about the proper balance between provision of food security and conservation of marine biodiversity for an even bigger human population confronted with changing, possibly declining, aquatic and terrestrial food production. The proper balance between established uses of oceans and coastal regions and new uses, such as wind and tidal power, must also be faced. This session is intended to open an expert dialogue on these important questions, through a mixture of conceptual, analytical, and case-history presentations.
 

Bonnie J. McCay (Invited)
Surfclam dramas and other stories about the human dimensions of climate change and fisheries (C2-6018)
(pdf, 2.5 Mb)

   

Serge M. Garcia, Andrew A. Rosenberg and Jake Rice
Food security, fisheries, and climate change (C2-6021)
(pdf, 0.1 Mb)

   

Gretta Pecl, Rebecca Brown, Peter Walsh, Stewart Frusher, Graham Edgar, Jeremy Lyle, Elvira S. Poloczanska and Rick Stuart-Smith
Citizen science as a research tool for monitoring ecological change in the marine environment (C2-6282)
(pdf, 1 Mb)

   

Renae C. Tobin and Stephen G. Sutton
Will diversity assist adaptability? A case study contrasting diverse and specialized fishing sectors in the Queensland Inshore Fishery, Australia (C2-6300)
(pdf, 1.2 Mb)

   

Ikutaro Shimizu, Tsutomu Ohnuki and Kunio Abe
Economic strategies for avoiding climate change effects on Japanese salmon fisheries (C2-6098)
(pdf, 0.2 Mb)

   

Johann D. Bell (Invited)
Climate change, fisheries and aquaculture in the Pacific – Implications for food security, livelihoods and economic growth (C2-6185)
(pdf, 2.2 Mb)

   

Milena Arias-Schreiber, Miguel Ñiquen and Marilou Bouchon
Adapting to climate change – Lessons from the Peruvian anchovy fishery on how to cope with extreme climatic events and environmental variability (C2-6346)
(pdf, 1 Mb)

   

Satsuki Takahashi
In search of new sea legs: Women’s roles in the survival of Japan’s fishing industry (C2-6122)
Permission to post denied. Contact Author for presentation

   

Henry P. Huntington, Alpina Begossi and Renato A.M. Silvano
Traditional fisheries practices and adaptation to environmental change: Case studies from Alaska and Brazil (C2-6055)
(pdf, 1.8 Mb)

   

Renato A.M. Silvano, Henry P. Huntington and Alpina Begossi
Fishers’ local ecological knowledge about fish and climatic change (C2-6318)
(pdf, 2.7 Mb)

   

Michael D. Pido, Ruth Guzman, Maripaz L. Perez, Elvira Martija, Elen R. Basug and Len R. Garces
The role of the academe in undertaking research and developing management strategies to address climate change impacts on fisheries: Some examples of initiatives of academic institutions in the Philippines
(pdf, 2 Mb)

   

Pedcris M. Orencio and Masahiko Fujii
Building community adaptability through ecosystem approach planning in the Province of Aurora, Philippines (C2-6159)
(waiting for permission)

   

Sahri Muhammad, Pudji Purwanti and Aida Sartimbul
Household fishermen empowerment based on local community wisdom as a problem solver on fishermen poverty: Case study in Madura Strait, Indonesia (C2-6207)
(pdf, 2.5 Mb)

 

  

Theme Session D2
Contemporary and next generation climate and oceanographic models, technical advances and new approaches

 
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Co-Convenors:
Jonathan Hare (Northeast Fisheries Science Center, NMFS/NOAA, USA)
Shin-ichi Ito (Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, FRA, Japan)

 
The projection of marine ecosystem response to future climate scenarios is needed to assess and implement marine ecosystem management. The marine ecosystem is part of the earth system, and prediction of ecosystem responses requires integrated knowledge from physical, chemical, and biological perspectives, as well as from marine, terrestrial and atmospheric perspectives. The earth system is complex with non-linear feedbacks (including biological to physical), regime shifts, and, in some cases, thresholds beyond which change is irreversible. Therefore, the uncertainties of climate and oceanographic models cause uncertainties of the projection of marine ecosystem response not only directly but also through complex feedback mechanisms. To reduce the uncertainties of the marine ecosystem projection, we must understand the mechanisms controlling climate systems and the linkages to marine ecosystems. Specific species responses to future ecosystem conditions are required by natural resource managers, and these require specific information (e.g., environments in coastal area during the short spawning period) as well as information regarding change of the ecosystem as a whole (e.g., total primary production, food-web dynamics). These issues are not part of climate modeling, but mechanistic links between the biological, physical, and chemical systems must be identified and incorporated into coupled population-ecosystem-climate models. Technical advances and new approaches are essential to achieve the goal of producing better projections of marine ecosystem response to future climate scenarios. This session will focus on climate and oceanographic models, including modeling of climate and ecosystem interaction, and technical advances and new approaches.
   

Michio Kawamiya (Invited)
Global change projection for ocean biogeochemistry and ecosystem (D2-6117)
(pdf, 1.2 Mb)

   

Masami Nonaka, Bunmei Taguchi, Hideharu Sasaki and Hisashi Nakamura
Decadal variability in the oceanic frontal zones in the western North Pacific Ocean in an eddy-resolving OGCM (D2-6325)
(waiting for permission)

   

Georgina A. Gibson, Kate Hedström, Enrique N. Curchitser and Albert J. Hermann
Simulating lower trophic level ecosystem dynamics in the Bering Sea (D2-6209)
(waiting for permission)

   

Yasumasa Miyazawa, Xinyu Guo, Ruo Chao Zhang, Sergey M. Varlamov, Tomowo Watanabe, Takashi Setou and Daisuke Ambe
Roles of the in-situ observations in the detection of the Kuroshio frontal variability south of Japan (D2-6324)
(pdf, 1.6 Mb)

   

Enrique N. Curchitser, Kate Hedström, William Large and Jon Wolf
From a climate to a multi-scale earth system model: Technical issues and advances (D2-6357)
(pdf, 0.6 Mb)

   

Anand Gnanadesikan (Invited)
Climate models and fisheries: Opportunities and challenges (D2-6123)
(pdf, 0.8 Mb)

   

Kosei Komatsu, Naoki Yoshie, Shin-ichi Ito, Takahiko Kameda, Tsuneo Ono, Kiyotaka Hidaka, Toru Hasegawa, Akira Kuwata, Miwa Nakamachi, Yuji Okazaki, Takeshi Okunishi, Kazuaki Tadokoro, Hiroaki Saito and Yasuhiro Yamanaka
Interannual variations of 3D structures of lower-trophic-level ecosystems in the western North Pacific using a new marine ecosystem model based on an eddy-resolving data-assimilative OGCM (D2-6323)
(waiting for permission)

   

Francisco E. Werner, Peter H. Wiebe and Jonathan A. Hare
Developing a modeling framework for basin scale models of marine ecosystems (D2-6348)
(pdf, 1.5 Mb)

   

Michio J. Kishi, Shin-ichi Ito, Bernard A. Megrey, Kenneth A. Rose and Francisco E. Werner
A review of the NEMURO.FISH model application to marine ecosystem investigations and its ability to evaluate responses of fish to future climate change (D2-6298)
(pdf, 1 Mb)

   

Scott Condie, Mark Hepburn, Jim Mansbridge and Phillip England
A second generation online tool for exploring oceanographic connectivity (D2-6051)
(pdf, 1 Mb)

   

Takashi T. Sakamoto, Yoshiki Komuro, Masayoshi Ishii, Hiroaki Tatebe, Akira Hasegawa, Hideo Shiogama, Takahiro Toyoda, Masato Mori, Seita Emori, Hiroyasu Hasumi and Masahide Kimoto
MIROC4.0 – A high-resolution AOGCM for the near-term climate prediction (D2-6337)
(pdf, 1.7 Mb)

   

William Peterson, Hongsheng Bi, Cheryl A. Morgan and Edmundo Casillas
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and marine food webs in the northern California Current: Variations in source waters which feed the California Current may be the mechanism which links climate change with ecosystem response (D2-6384)
(waiting for permission)

   

Maria A. Gasalla, O. Sato and P.S. Polito
An application of the ethno-oceanographic framework to study global change issues off the South Brazil Bight with remote-sensing data (D2-6388)
(waiting for permission)

 

Workshop 1
Reducing global and national vulnerability to climate change in the fisheries sectors: Policy perspectives post Copenhagen

Co-Convenors:
Cassandra De Young (Food and Agriculture Organization)
Eddie Allison (WorldFish Center, Malaysia on behalf of the Global Partnership on Climate, Fisheries and Aquaculture (PaCFA))

The objectives of this workshop would be:
  1. To present the goals and strategy of PaCFA
  2. To inform participants about the COP15 decisions regarding adaptation and mitigation actions relevant to the reduction of vulnerability to climate change impacts on fisheries, aquaculture and marine ecosystems – including built-in mechanisms to do so within the UNFCCC.
  3. The way forward –
    • To consider the responses of individual agencies and institutions to COP-15 and any adaptation and mitigation efforts in response to climate changes.
    • To discuss how the PaCFA can assist national and multinational agencies reduce the vulnerability of countries and regions to climate change impacts on fisheries and marine ecosystems, with particular emphasis on LDC and small island states
    • To identify the critical gaps in the science underpinning climate impacts on fish production systems and marine and coastal ecosystems and on potential adaptation responses and mitigation options
    • To develop a strategy to ensure that the next IPCC report will take full account of emerging ocean and fishery science related to climate change.

Workshop 2
Potential impacts of ocean acidification on marine ecosystems and fisheries

 
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Co-Convenors:
Kenneth L. Denman (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis; DFO, Canada)
Yukihiro Nojiri (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan)
Hans Pörtner (Alfred-Wegener Institute, Germany)

 

The global ocean is being acidified as carbon dioxide from fossil fuel emissions enters its surface waters. The magnitude of this increase is directly related to the amount of carbon dioxide added, and more certain than many other changes related to climate change. Predicting the impacts of increasing acidification on marine ecosystems and fisheries is difficult due to the lack of knowledge of the ability of individual species and functional groups to adapt to increasing acidification, especially in combination with related effects associated with climate change such as increasing temperature, declining dissolved oxygen (Brewer and Peltzer, 2009), and stratification. Hence, potential effects cannot yet be represented in models of marine ecosystems. Potential impacts on commercial fisheries are significant: an analysis of 2007 US ‘at vessel’ fisheries value indicates 73% of the value is associated with calcium carbonate organisms and their direct predators (Cooley and Doney, 2009).

This workshop will discuss manipulation experiments and observations on the effects of high acidity (low pH) caused by elevated carbon dioxide on organisms at all trophic levels of fisheries foodwebs, modelling approaches to predict the impact of continuing increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, effects on marine biodiversity, and economic and social impacts on marine fisheries.

It is expected that the workshop will produce a white paper on these research directions and a summary article in PICES Press.

 

Kenneth L. Denman, James Christian, Nadja Steiner and Warren Lee
Acidification of the global ocean: Observational evidence and projections to 2100 with the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM) (W2-6370)
(pdf, 1.2 Mb)

   

Masako Nakamura, Shun Ohki, Atsushi Suzuki and Kazuhiko Sakai
Metabolism and metamorphosis of coral larvae in acidified seawater (W2-6149)
Permission to post denied. Contact Author for presentation

   

Lailah G. Lartey-Antwi and Andreas J. Andersson
Effects of ocean acidification on the growth of the flat-tree oyster, Isognomon alatus (Gmelin, 1791) (W2-6259)
(pdf, 1 Mb)

   

Ryota Suwa and Yoshihisa Shirayama
Effects of diurnal pCO2 fluctuation on sea urchin larvae: A preliminary report (W2-6361)
(waiting for permission)

   

Haruko Kurihara
Overview of the impacts of ocean acidification on the early development of fishes and shellfishes (W2-6303)
(waiting for permission)

   

Awantha Dissanayake, Atsushi Ishimatsu, Haruko Kurihara and So Kawaguchi
Climate change impacts (ocean acidification and temperature) on the metabolic scope and activity of nektonic organisms: A crustacean example (W2-6311)
(pdf, 1 Mb)

   

Kehinde Salau
Mathematical approach to modeling the effects of ocean acidification on the pteropod and pink salmon population (W2-6243)
Permission to post denied. Contact Author for presentation

   

Atsushi Ishimatsu, Atsuko Fukuda and Haruko Kurihara
Effects of CO2-driven ocean acidification and warming on early development of fish (W2-6291)
(pdf, 1 Mb)

   

Philip L. Munday, Monica Gagliano, Simon Thorrold, Jennifer M. Donelson and Danielle L. Dixson
Ocean acidification does not affect the early life history development of a tropical marine fish (W2-6128)
Permission to post denied. Contact Author for presentation

   

David M. Checkley, Jr.
Effects of elevated pCO2 on fish otoliths – Results, inference, and experimental design (W2-6390)
(waiting for permission)

 

Workshop 3
Coupled climate-to-fish-to-fishers models for understanding mechanisms underlying low frequency fluctuations in small pelagic fish and projecting its future

 
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Co-Convenors:
Salvador Lluch-Cota (Centro de Investigaciones Biologicas del Noroeste (CIBNOR), Mexico)
Enrique N. Curchitser (Institute for Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, USA)
Shin-ichi Ito (Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, FRA, Japan)

 

The low-frequency variability of small pelagic fish abundance is one of the most emblematic and best-documented cases of fish population fluctuations not explained wholly by fishing effort. Over the last 25 years, diverse observations have been integrated into several hypotheses; however, due to limited-duration time series, hypothesis testing has proven extremely difficult with the available statistical and empirical tools. As a result, the mechanistic basis for how the physics, biogeochemistry, and biology interact to result in the various patterns of synchronous variability across widely separated systems remains unknown. Identification of these mechanisms is necessary in order to explore projections and to build scenarios of the amplitude and timing of stock fluctuations, and their responses to human interactions (fisheries) and climate change. The workshop aims to bring and compare state-of-the-art modeling tools and discuss on expertise to tackle this important scientific and environmental problem.

The workshop will likely produce a review paper on state-of-art models for coupled physical and biological (including higher trophic level) systems. It is also expected that papers presented at the workshop will be submitted for publication in the Symposium volume.

 

Ryan R. Rykaczewski
Changes in mesozooplankton size structure along a trophic gradient and implications for the growth of small pelagic fish (W3-6365)
(waiting for presentation)

   

Wolfgang Fennel
A consistent nutrient to fish model for the Baltic Sea (W3-6027)
(pdf, 1.5 Mb)

   

George Triantafyllou, Kostas Tsiaras, Stylianos Somarakis, Dimitris Politikos George Petihakis, Annika Pollani, Shin-ichi Ito and Bernard A. Megrey
Development and implementation of a 3D-IBM in the north Aegean Sea (eastern Mediterranean) that describes the full life cycle of anchovy (W3-6297)
(waiting for permission)

   

Shin-ichi Ito, Takeshi Okunishi, Michio J. Kishi and Muyin Wang
Potential impact of climate change on Pacific saury (W3-6267)
(pdf, 1.6 Mb)

   

Kate Hedström, Jerome Fiechter, Kenneth A. Rose, Enrique N. Curchitser, Miguel Bernal, Shin-ichi Ito and Bernard A. Megrey
Development of a climate-to-fish-to-fishers model: Data structures and domain decomposition (W3-6211)
(pdf, 0.5 Mb)

   

Kenneth A. Rose
Should climate-to-fish-to-fishers models be assembled from existing models? (W3-6401)
(pdf, 1.4 Mb)

 

Workshop 4
Salmon workshop on climate change

 
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Co-Convenors:
James Irvine (Pacific Biological Station, DFO, Canada)
Masa-aki Fukuwaka (Hokkaido National Fisheries Research Institute, FRA, Japan)
Suam Kim (Pukyong National University, Korea)
Vladimir Radchenko (Sakhalin Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography, Russia)
Loh-Lee Low (Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NMFS/NOAA, USA)
Shigehiko Urawa (North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission)

 

The North Pacific region is home to multiple species of salmonid fishes, including anadromous Pacific salmon that regularly migrate from freshwater to the sea and back. Salmon provide economic benefits in the form of subsistence, commercial, and recreational fisheries, and contribute to the cultural enrichment of the regions where they occur. Their ecological role is complex as they facilitate energy transfer directly and indirectly at multiple trophic levels in many ecosystems. Their ability to occupy habitats in fresh, salt, and brackish water has led to a remarkable diversity of life histories, but climate change threatens to alter their distribution and abundance.

Salmon are found most frequently in cooler regions of the Pacific Ocean. In recent years, commercial catches have been among the highest on record, with no indication of declines. For instance, 2007 catches exceeded
1 million tonnes, with pink and chum salmon constituting 51 and 31% of the catch by weight respectively. Yet coho, Chinook, and some sockeye salmon populations are declining in many areas.

This one-day workshop will examine scenarios for the future of Pacific salmon, based on climate projections from coupled ocean/climate or other models or from statistical projections of expected climate changes. The workshop will emphasize regional scales that are believed to be of particular importance. For example, global warming may enhance oceanic conditions for some species in some regions, while diminishing them for others. A good understanding of potential interactions between regional physical and biological processes is critical for accurate projections of such regional responses. The workshop will provide an opportunity to examine whether the responses of salmon populations to climate change will differ among regions, and what the mechanisms might be.

It is expected that papers presented at the workshop, as well as documentation from the panel discussion, will be submitted for publication in the Symposium volume.

 

James R. Irvine and Masa-aki Fukuwaka
Setting the stage for predicting climate change effects on Pacific salmon – How has salmon abundance varied during the last 85 years and why? (W4-6121)
(pdf, 0.4 Mb)

   

Masa-aki Fukuwaka, Toshiki Kaga and Tomonori Azumaya
Regional differences in climate factors controlling chum and pink salmon abundance (W4-6096)
(pdf, 0.4 Mb)

   

Masahide Kaeriyama, Michio J. Kishi and Hyunju Seo
Global warming and density-dependent effects on Hokkaido chum salmon (W4-6138)
(waiting for permission)

   

Ed V. Farley, Jr., Lisa B. Eisner, J. Murphy, R. Heintz and Alex Andrews
Implications of a warming eastern Bering Sea on western Alaska salmon (W4-6203)
(waiting for permission)

   

Phillip R. Mundy and Dani F. Evenson
Phenolgy of high latitude chinook salmon populations (W4-6381)
(pdf, 1.4 Mb)

   

Thomas C. Wainwright and Laurie A. Weitkamp
Climate effects and Oregon coast coho salmon: A multi-ecosystem approach (W4-6218)
(pdf, 1.3 Mb)

   

Thomas E. Reed, Robin S. Waples, Daniel E. Schindler, Eli Meir and Nathan J. Mantua
Adaptation and persistence of Pacific salmon facing climate change: An individual-based modeling analysis (W4-6245)
(pdf, 0.5 Mb)

   

Randall M. Peterman, Peter B. Adams, Brigitte Dorner, Douglas L. Drake, Harold J. Geiger, Kendra Holt, Chris Jordan, David P. Larsen, Steven A. Leider, Richard H. Lincoln, Anthony R. Olsen, Charles K. Parken, Jeffrey D. Rodgers and Shaun Walbridge
The Salmon Monitoring Advisor: A hierarchical web site to help design and implement salmon monitoring programs (W4-6087)
(pdf, 0.3 Mb)

   

Larry Wasserman
Developing salmon management responses to climate impacts at the watershed scale (W4-6222)
(waiting for permission)

 

Workshop 5
Networking across global marine “hotspots”

 
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Co-Convenors:
Gretta Pecl (Tasmanian Aquaculture and Fisheries Institute, University of Tasmania, Australia)
Alistair J. Hobday (CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Australia)
Stewart Frusher (Tasmanian Aquaculture and Fisheries Institute, University of Tasmania, Australia)
Warwick Sauer (Rhodes University, South Africa)

 

Regional global warming ‘hotspots’, typified by above average ocean temperature increases, provide the potential for early warning and evidence of the response by natural resources to climate change. In theory, regions at the ‘front-line’ of climate change should also be leading the field in terms of assessing impacts and evaluating adaptation options. Networking and synthesising outcomes from across hotspots can facilitate accelerated learning and also indicate sensible pathways for maximising adaptation and minimising impacts for other global regions.

This workshop is designed to (1) highlight where global marine ‘hotspots’ occur now, and where they are projected to occur in the future; (2) summarize the information currently emerging on biological climate change impacts in these areas, and (3) discuss the potential for developing a global network of scientists, policy makers and managers working in marine hotspots.

Ecological monitoring of hotspots provides us with one of the first opportunities to detect the nature and pace of climate change induced impacts on our marine ecosystems, and also the first prospect for validating species or ecosystem model projections against reality. Fisheries provide significant social and economic benefits globally, and early warning of changes in resource quality and/or availability is required to minimize social tensions (e.g., increased poverty and changes in resource allocation) and societal costs (e.g., income redistribution and government restructuring). Prior knowledge of how and when resources may alter will also facilitate the development, application and evaluation of adaptation options for fisheries.

Participants providing or presenting a summary of impacts from any of the global hotspots will be asked to contribute to a multi-authored publication in a high-ranking international journal. Identification of biological change in these hotspots is the main workshop challenge; however, participants are also requested to identify publications or unpublished data showing long-term change in oceanographic or physical characteristics of the area (e.g., SST, currents). Several potential proposals and funding sources for a global network of marine hotspots will be discussed.

 

Alistair J. Hobday and Gretta Pecl
Identification of global marine hotspots: Sentinels for change and vanguards for adaptation (W5-6152)
Permission to post denied. Contact Author for presentation

   

Stewart Frusher, Gretta Pecl, Alistair J. Hobday, Craig Johnson and Zoe Doubleday
Climate driven changes in marine assemblages in SE Australia: A southern hemisphere ‘hotspot’ (W5-6312)
(pdf, 2.7 Mb)

   

Larry Hutchings, Carl van der Lingen, Chris Reason, Frank Shillington, Andy Cockcroft, Warren Potts, Romina Novo-Henriques, Paul Shaw and Warwick Sauer
The Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem (W5-6408)
(waiting for permission)

   

Graham Edgar and Stuart Banks
Catastrophic changes to inshore benthic communities following oceanographic warming events in the Galapagos archipelago (W5-6321)
Permission to post denied. Contact Author for presentation

   

Franz J. Mueter
Biological responses to recent climate variability on the eastern Bering Sea shelf (W5-6307)
(pdf, 1.3 Mb)

   

Thomas A. Okey, Alvaro Montenegro, Veronica Lo, Sabine Jessen and Hussein Alidina
Overview of climate change effects in British Columbia marine ecosystems (W5-6306)
(pdf, 1.6 Mb)

   

Nicholas K. Dulvy, Doug J. Beare, Julia L. Blanchard, Jan G. Hiddink, Simon Jennings, Brian J. MacKenzie and Allison L. Perry
Rapid ecological change in the Northeast Atlantic climate change hotspot (W5-6416)
(pdf, 1.7 Mb)

   

Nguyen Huu Ninh
Aquaculture and climate change in the coastal zone of Vietnam (W5-6341)
(waiting for permission)

   

Kuo-Tien Lee and Hsueh-Jung Lu
Impact of climate change on coastal fishery resources of Taiwan (W5-6406)
(waiting for permission)

   

Wang Hui
South China Sea
(waiting for permission)

   

Lucy Scott and Warwick Sauer
Vulnerability to ocean warming in the Mozambique channel region (W5-6407)
(waiting for permission)

   

Yury I. Zuenko
The Japan Sea hotspot: Impacts of warming on bio-productivity and fisheries resources (W5-6404)
(pdf, 0.5 Mb)

   

José H. Muelbert
Oceanography and biological production off South Brazil and Urugay (W5-6405)
(waiting for permission)

   

George L. Hunt, Jr.
Hotspots in warming sub-arctic seas (W5-6037)
(pdf, 2.2 Mb)

 

Workshop 6
Examining the linkages between physics and fish: How do zooplankton and krill data sets improve our understanding of the impacts of climate change on fisheries?

 
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Co-Convenors:
William Peterson (Hatfield Marine Science Center, NMFS/NOAA, USA)
Kazuaki Tadokoro (Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, FRA, Japan)

 

This workshop will provide an opportunity for those keenly interested in “how data on zooplankton and krill can be used to better understand and forecast the impacts of climate change on fisheries” to discuss the topic in an informal workshop atmosphere. It is expected that the workshop will demonstrate explicitly how information on zooplankton and krill contribute to better understanding of linkages between physics and fish. Furthermore, the workshop will likely generate novel ideas that will add to the open discussions during the Symposium itself.

It is anticipated that the workshop will produce a white paper that summarizes ongoing research activities as well as publications which link climate change to fisheries through changes in the food web in a variety of ecosystems – coastal, oceanic, upwelling, Arctic, and Antarctic. This will be a foundation document that shows where we are now and where we want to be in the future. It would also produce a set of recommendations for how we might move forward in our quest to better understand the mechanisms that link physics and fish through food chain interactions. Such a white paper could be found acceptable for publication, after peer review, in the “Horizons” section of the Journal of Plankton Research .

 

William T. Peterson
Overview of some physical mechanisms that link physical forcing with zooplankton and fisheries response in the North Pacific
(waiting for permission)

   

Ryan R. Rykaczewski
Propagation of ecological anomalies from the western to eastern North Pacific in a global earth system model (W6-6420)
(pdf, 0.4 Mb)

   

William T. Peterson, Hongsheng Bi, Cheryl A. Morgan and Edmundo Casillas
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and marine food webs in the northern California Current: Variations in source waters which feed the California Current may be the mechanism which links climate change with ecosystem response (W6-6385)
(waiting for permission)

   

Jay O. Peterson and William T. Peterson
Evidence of climate change in the northern California Current ecosystem and its impact on the distribution and community composition of zooplankton (W6-6374)
(waiting for permission)

   

C. Tracy Shaw, Leah R. Feinberg and William T. Peterson
Potential effects of climate change on the euphausiids Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera off Newport, OR, USA (W6-6047)
(pdf, 0.5 Mb)

   

Leah R. Feinberg and William T. Peterson
Impacts of wintertime upwelling and primary production on euphausiid phenology and the productivity of upper trophic levels in the northern California Current (W6-6372)
(waiting for permission)

   

Motomitsu Takahashi, David M. Checkley, Jr., Richard D. Brodeur and William T. Peterson
Responses in growth rate of larval northern anchovy and Pacific sardine to anomalous upwelling in 2005 in the northern California Current (W6-6421)
(waiting for permission)

   

Kazuaki Tadokoro and Yuji Okazaki
Overview of the zooplankton from viewpoint of food for fish resources in the western North Pacific (W6-6418)
(pdf, 1.4 Mb)

   

Mikiko Kuriyama, Hiroya Sugisaki, Yuichi Hirota, Tadafumi Ichikawa, Hiroshi Itoh and Hiroshi Horikawa
Long-term variation in copepod community structure in the Kuroshio area, off southern Japan
(waiting for permission)

   

Toru Kobari, Kazuaki Tadokoro, Hiroya Sugisaki and Hiroshi Ito
Response of large grazing copepods to climate-oceanographic changes in the western subarctic Pacific Ocean (W6-6419)