Co-Convenors:
Harold P. Batchelder (U.S.A.), Michael Foreman (Canada), Anne
B. Hollowed (U.S.A.) and Hiroaki Saito (Japan)
Invited speakers:
Manuel Barange (GLOBEC IPO)
Michael Dalton (Alaska Fisheries Science Center, U.S.A.)
Raghu Murtugudde (University of Maryland, U.S.A.)
Takeshi Okunishi (National Research Institute of Fisheries Science, Japan)
The prediction of responses of marine
ecosystems to future climate scenarios is an important objective
of PICES’ new science program, FUTURE (Forecasting
and Understanding Trends,
Uncertainty and Responses
of North Pacific Marine Ecosystems).
However, the marine ecosystem is part of the earth system
and its prediction needs integrated knowledge from physical,
chemical, and biological perspectives. Earth system science
is an interdisciplinary approach that integrates anthropology,
atmospheric science, biology, oceanography, geophysics and
policy to provide predictions of ecosystem response to climate
change. The earth system is complex with non-linear feedbacks,
threshold responses, and, in some cases, irreversible change.
Understanding the mechanisms controlling these system properties
is critical to accurately forecasting future states of nature
in a changing climate. Moreover, conducting large-scale experiments
on the earth system is impossible. Therefore, regional marine
ecosystem models should include the earth system science links
that are essential for producing better predictions of marine
ecosystem response to future climate scenarios. This session
will focus on multi-disciplinary coupled models and theoretical,
observational and experimental studies designed to provide
outlooks and/or forecasts of marine ecosystems. Outlooks and
forecasts differ in that outlooks are qualitative with (often)
unbounded uncertainties, while forecasts are often quantitative,
but must have bounded certainties. Presentations that focus
on both long-term and short-term predictions, and that link
two or more disciplines (such as physical oceanography, climate,
ecosystem dynamics, marine resource management, or socio-economic
systems) are welcome. Presentations that explore what additional
information or data are needed to provide outlooks and forecasts,
and especially to transition from providing outlooks to providing
forecasts are desired.