Scope
Climate change is the most important threat to the Earth. Even if we stabilize CO2 concentrations, the 2007 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Assessment confirms that warming will continue for decades and sea level will continue to rise for centuries. Some direct effects of climate change in the marine environment are already visible, but others need to be defined by enhanced observations, analysis and modelling. We have a rudimentary understanding of the sensitivity and adaptability of natural and managed ecosystems to climate change. An assessment of the consequences of climate change on the World's Oceans has a high scientific and social relevance and is urgently needed.
Although we are beginning to document the local effects and consequences of climate change on the functioning of marine ecosystems, there is no comprehensive vision at the global scale, and only limited ability to forecast the effects of climate change. To close this gap, the Symposium will focus on the major issues of climate change that affect the oceans: oceanic circulation, climate modelling, cycling of carbon and other elements, acidification, oligotrophy, changes in species distributions and migratory routes, sea-level rise, coastal erosion, etc. The Symposium will bring together results from observations, analyses and model simulations, at a global scale, and will include discussion of the climate change scenarios and the possibilities for mitigating and protecting the marine environment and living marine resources.
Organizers
PRIMARY INTERNATIONAL SPONSORS
North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES)
International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES)
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC)
CO-SPONSORING ORGANIZATIONS
Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics (GLOBEC)
Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR)
World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
Asturias Science Plan 2006-2010
Port Authority of Gijón
Spanish Science Foundation
The City of Gijón
Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute (KORDI)
LOCAL ORGANIZER
Instituto Espanol de Oceanografia (IEO) – Centro Oceanografico de Gijón (contact Dr. Luis Valdés)
SYMPOSIUM CONVENORS
John Church (IOC)
William Peterson (PICES)
Luis Valdés (ICES)
SCIENTIFIC STEERING COMMITTEE
Richard Feely (U.S.A.)
Michael Foreman (Canada)
Roger Harris (U.K.)
Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (Australia)
Harald Loeng (Norway)
Liana McManus (U.S.A./Philippines)
Jorge Sarmiento (U.S.A.)
Martin Visbeck (Germany)
Akihiko Yatsu (Japan)
Email all members of the SS Committee
Themes
Theme 1. Past and future variability and change in ocean climate
Dramatic changes have been observed in the circulation and physical characteristics of the oceans over the past century. These changes are projected to continue over the next century based on the analyses and summaries recently presented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In this Topic, we solicit presentations that address past and future climate variability and change in the ocean, and the role that the ocean plays in these changes. Papers related to changes in forcing mechanisms such as wind fields, air-sea heat exchange, the freshwater budget, and the impact that changes in these forcing fields have had, and will have, on ocean circulation, large-scale sea level, heat and freshwater content and transport, ventilation and upwelling, sea-ice, and surface waves, are all welcome. Presentations using: i) analyses of global and regional data sets arising from observations alone and/or state estimation; ii) idealized and conceptual models of observed climate change; iii) analyses of global climate models projections or results from higher-resolution regional ocean, or coupled atmosphere-ocean, models that are forced by, and take their boundary conditions from, global climate models; iv) uncertainties in model projections and how they might be improved; and v) the ability of models to predict abrupt change and extreme events, are encouraged.
Theme 2. Interactions between climate variability and change and biogeochemical cycles
Carbon dioxide is one of the most important “green-house” gases in the atmosphere affecting the heat balance of the earth. As a direct result of the industrial and agricultural activities of humans over the past two centuries, atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased by about 100 ppm. The atmospheric concentration of CO2 is now higher than experienced on Earth for at least the last 650,000 years, and is expected to continue to rise, leading to significant temperature and CO2 increases in the atmosphere and oceans by the end of this century. The ocean carbon cycle is closely linked to climate because the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 helps to regulate atmospheric CO2 and, furthermore, the rate of uptake of CO2 is affected by climate-induced changes in biogeochemical and physical processes in the oceans.
Theme 3. Impacts of climate variability and change on the coastal environment
Climate change will profoundly shape the global coast. Changes in weather patterns (temperature, rainfall and coastal winds) and extreme events could impact coastal ecosystems as well as societal use of coastal regions. A key factor is likely to be change in availability of fresh water during both flooding and drought periods. Long-term impacts such as sea-level rise and changes in the intensity and frequency of hurricanes and storms could lead to changes in shoreline migration and extent of coastal flooding, salinization of aquifers, and changes in sediment and nutrient transport. Changes in the production and integrity of coastal ecosystems in response to altered climate and physical regimes could decrease the ecosystem goods and services they provide. Because human populations are increasing most rapidly in coastal areas, mitigating the impacts of anticipated climate change is a key determinant in reducing the vulnerability of coastal populations and ecosystems to change and increasing resilience in both urban and rural coastal regions.
Theme 4. Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems: Present status of our understanding
Recent studies have documented the impacts of climate variability and change, on a range of ecosystems, over a range of time scales. While we can now begin to identify and monitor some of these impacts, many questions remain. These include how ocean processes will change in the future, the mechanisms involved, what effects such changes may have on ecosystems, and whether we can develop indicators for early detection of changes. This Topic will particularly encourage comparative studies of relations between climate variability, climate change and marine ecosystems, as well as presentations which consider mechanisms that link physical forcing with ecosystem change. Central themes are: What are the key processes of ecosystem change and how might they be monitored? Can we predict shifts in species distributions and changes in productivity? Are there other limits that will constrain such global movements? What is the status of our knowledge of the ability of organisms to adapt to climate change? What are the options for managing marine ecosystems to sustain goods essential to societies? Such understanding is essential if we are to effectively manage global marine living resources such as fisheries and marine protected areas during this period of increased human impact. Studies from both shelf and open ocean areas are encouraged.
Theme 5 . Scenarios-mitigation-reduction of impact of future climate change on the marine environment: From regional to global scale (back to top)
Marine ecosystems worldwide are changing as a result of climate variability and climate change. This session will consider potential impacts on and perturbations of ecosystem structure, function, goods and services using our current knowledge of ecosystem response to climate variability and the prognosis for future climate change. At present, our ability to make (even simple) predictions about coastal and oceanic ecosystem response to climate change may be hampered by an incomplete understanding of the linkages between them. We know that ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to ice melting and resultant changes in habitat, thus we are interested in examples of scenarios for physical forcing and ecosystem change in the Arctic as well as in other geographical regions. Does our current knowledge of climate change allow us to predict shifts in distributions of organisms and/or changes in productivity? What do we know about the ability of organisms to adapt to climate change? What are the options for managing marine ecosystems to sustain goods and services essential to societies? We seek presentations that address these questions as well as regional examples of physical climate change scenarios and the resultant ecosystem responses. We expect that the information presented in this Topic will lead to discussion of projected future changes and options for adaptation and mitigation.
Speakers
PLENARY SPEAKERS
Theme Session 1.1: Observed climate changes
Lynne D. Talley (Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, USA)
Theme Session 1.2: Climate model projections
Ronald J. Stouffer (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA)
Theme Session 2.1: Marine carbon cycling and other biogeochemical cycles
Corinne Le Quere (British Antarctic Survey, UK)
Theme Session 2.2: Ocean acidification and coral reef bleaching
Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (Centre for Marine Studies, University of Queensland, Australia)
Theme Session 3.1: Natural hazards, sea level rise and coastal erosion
Jason Lowe (Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK)
Theme Session 3.2: Estuarine and wetland ecosystem functioning
Dan Baird (University of Stellenbosch, South Africa)
Theme Session 4.1: Impacts on lower trophic levels
Joaquim Goes (Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, USA)
Theme Session 4.2: Impacts on higher trophic levels
Patrick Lehodey (Collecte et Localisation par Satellites, France)
Theme Session 5.1: Scenarios for polar, mid-latitude, sub-tropical, and tropical environments and ecosystems
Eddy Carmack (Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada)
Theme Session 5.2: Adaptation and mitigation of effects in the marine environment and ecosystems
Jane Lubchenko (Wayne and Gladys Valley Professor of Marine Biology, Oregon State University, USA)
THEME SESSIONS SPEAKERS
Theme Session 1.1: Observed climate changes
Nathan Bindoff (University of Tasmania, Australia) and Ruth Curry (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, USA)
Theme Session 1.2: Climate model projections
Seita Emori (Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan) and Hans von Storch (Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center, Germany)
Theme Session 2.1: Marine carbon cycling and other biogeochemical cycles
Christopher L. Sabine (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA, USA) and Andrew J. Watson (School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, UK)
Theme Session 2.2: Ocean acidification and coral reef bleaching
James C. Orr (Marine Environment Laboratories, Monaco, France) and Hans-Otto Pörtner (Alfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Germany)
Theme Session 3.1: Natural hazards, sea level rise and coastal erosion
John Rees (British Geological Survey, UK) and Katja Woth (Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center, Germany)
Theme Session 3.2: Estuarine and wetland ecosystem functioning
Robert Diaz (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, USA) and Pierluigi Viaroli (Parma University, Italy)
Theme Session 4.1: Impacts on lower trophic levels
Sanae Chiba (Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan) and Angel Lopez-Urrutia (Centro Oceanográfico de Gijón, Instituto Español de Oceanografia, Spain)
Theme Session 4.2: Impacts on higher trophic levels
Keith Brander (Technical University of Denmark, Denmark) and Michio Kishi (Hokkaido University, Japan)
Theme Session 5.1: Scenarios for polar, mid-latitude, sub-tropical, and tropical environments and ecosystems
Graham Hosie (Department of the Environment and Water Resources, Australian Antarctic Divisione) and Gordon Kruse (University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA)
Theme Session 5.2: Adaptation and mitigation of effects in the marine environment and ecosystems
Marissa Baskett (National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University California Santa Barbara, USA) and Andrew A. Rosenberg (Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space, University of New Hampshire, USA)
Plenary Talks
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Lynne D. Talley (Theme 1.1)
Observed ocean climate changes: a review based on the IPCC AR4 and subsequent
works
(pdf, 5 Mb)
Ronald J. Stouffer (Theme 1.2)
Oceans role in climate change
(pdf,
4.8
Mb
)
Corinne Le Quere (Theme 2.1)
Recent trend in the global oceanic CO2
sink
(Permission denied)
Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (Theme 2.2)
Coral reef ecosystems as casualties of rapid climate change
Jason Lowe (Theme 3.1)
Can we quanify the risk of large increases in sea level extreams?
(Waiting for permission)
Dan Baird (Theme 3.2)
An assessment of the functional variability of coastal ecosystems in
the context to recent climate change
(pdf,
2.3
Mb
)
Joaquim Goes (Theme 4.1)
Shrinking snowcaps and rising productivity: response of the Arabian
Sea ecosystem to recent climate change
(pdf,
19
Mb
)
Patrick Lehodey (Theme 4.2)
Forecasts of population trends for two species of tuna under an IPCC
scenario
(pdf,
2
Mb
)
Eddy Carmack (Theme 5.1)
The changing Northern Ocean
(pdf, 17 Mb)
Jane Lubchenko (Theme 5.2)
Managing for resilience in ocean ecosystems
(pdf,
1.7
Mb
)
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Session 1.1
Observed climate changes
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This session will present observations of climate change in the ocean’s physical characteristics, including circulation, water mass properties (heat, salinity, and tracers of water masses), sea level and surface waves; and change in the associated forcings, such as winds, air-sea heat flux, freshwater flux and sea-ice. Papers are encouraged that describe emerging methodologies for observing and quantifying ocean climate change, including new observing networks and state estimation. Model studies that explore the causes of observed climate change in the ocean are also welcome
Convenors:
Lynne D. Talley (Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, USA)
Martin Visbeck (Ocean Circulation and Climate Dynamics, IFM-GEOMAR, Germany)
Invited Speakers:
Nathan Bindoff (University of Tasmania, Australia)
Ruth Curry (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, USA)
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Martin Visbeck (Invited)
Evolution of Atlantic Ocean properties and circulation from the tropics
to the Arctic
(Waiting for permission)
Martin Visbeck, Jürgen Fischer, Rainer Zantopp,
Lothar Stramma, Peter Brandt and Friedrich Schott
Is the Atlantic thermohaline circulation slowing? Results from Deep
Western Boundary Current observations at the exit of the Labrador Sea
(Waiting for permission)
Eugene B. Colbourne, K.F. Drinkwater, H. Loeng and S.
Sundby
Ocean climate variability in the North Atlantic: the importance of large-scale
atmospheric forcing
(Waiting for permission)
Cesar M. González-Pola, Alicia Lavín, José
Luis López-Jurado, Carmen Rodriguez, Raquel Somavilla, Manuel
Ruiz-Villareal, Guillermo Díaz del Rio and Ricardo Sánchez
The recent warming of intermediate waters at the eastern North Atlantic:
insights from a monthly hydrographical time series in the Bay of Biscay
(pdf,
1.4
Mb
)
N. Penny Holliday, S.L. Hughes, S. Bacon, A. Beszczynska-Möller,
B. Hansen, A. Lavín, H. Loeng, K.A. Mork, S. Østerhus,
T. Sherwin and W. Walczowski
Reversal of the 1960s-1990s freshening trend in the upper ocean of the
north-east North Atlantic and Nordic Seas
(pdf,
0.8
Mb
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Julio M. Morell, Julian Morell and Jorge E. Corredor
Responsiveness of water mass properties to climate forcing at the Caribbean
Time series station in the northeastern Caribbean basin
(pdf,
0.5
Mb
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Matthew H. England and Willem P. Sijp
Southern hemisphere westerly wind control over the ocean’s thermohaline
circulation
(pdf,
1.9
Mb
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Douglas G. Martinson
Increased ocean heat along the continental margin of west Antarctica
(pdf,
2.3
Mb
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Claus W. Böning, Astrid Dispert, Martin Visbeck,
Steve R. Rintoul and Franziska Schwarzkopf
Multi-decadal warming and freshening of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current
(Permission denied)
Skip McKinnell and Nate Mantua
A high resolution Pacific Decadal Oscillation and some of its novel
characteristics
(pdf,
0.5
Mb
)
Igor A. Zhabin and Svetlana N. Taranova
Influence of rapid regional climate warming on the water mass formation
in the Japan/East Sea
(pdf,
0.5
Mb
)
Nathaniel L. Bindoff, Kieran P. Helm and John A. Church
(Invited)
Global changes of the hydrological cycle and ocean renewal inferred
from ocean salinity, temperature and oxygen data
(pdf,
3.5
Mb
)
Simon A. Josey, Jeremy P. Grist, Robert Marsh and Bablu
Sinha
Impacts of air-sea flux variability on the mid-high latitude North Atlantic
Ocean
(Waiting for permission)
Ming Feng, Arne Biastoch, Claus W. Böning, Nick
Caputi and Gary Meyers
Variability and trend of the heat balance in the southeast Indian Ocean
(pdf,
1.8
Mb
)
Juliet C. Hermes and Chris J.C. Reason
Climate variability and change in the Seychelles-Chagos thermocline
ridge of the south west Indian Ocean
(pdf,
2.6
Mb
)
Chikka Kalyani Devasena, P.S. Swathi and M.K. Sharada
Upper ocean variability in the equatorial Indian Ocean and the influence
of monsoon circulation
(waiting for file)
Gaël Alory and Gary Meyers
Warming of the upper equatorial Indian Ocean and changes in the heat
budget (1960-2000)
(pdf,
1.3
Mb
)
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Session 1.2
Climate model projections
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This session will extend the observational evidence of oceanic climate change and variability described in Theme 1.1 to future projections. Presentations that summarize or analyze oceanographic characteristics or features simulated by global climate models, as well as those that downscale (statistically or dynamically) results from these models to specific regions, are encouraged. Though the focus will be on change and variability in large scale physical variables, processes, and patterns, talks that draw links to biogeochemistry and impacts are also welcome.
Convenors:
Michael G. Foreman (Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada)
Richard Wood (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK)
Invited Speakers:
Seita Emori (Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan)
Hans von Storch (Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center, Germany)
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Hans von Storch, Eduardo Zorita and Fidel J. González-Rouco
(Invited)
Comparing past variability of coastal currents and upwelling regimes
with plausible future anthropogenic signals – in the framework
of millennial AOGCM simulations
(pdf,
1
Mb
)
Seita Emori
(Invited)
Future projection of extreme events
(pdf,
1.6
Mb
)
Markus Scheinert, Claus W. Böning and Arne Biastoch
Freshening of the subpolar North Atlantic: causes and consequences
(Permission denied)
Nicholas A. Bond, James E. Overland and Muyin Wang
A method for using IPCC model simulations to project changes in marine
ecosystems
(pdf,
0.6
Mb
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Robert Marsh, Beverly A. de Cuevas, Andrew C. Coward
and Simon A. Josey
Recent warming and changes of circulation in the North Atlantic simulated
with eddy-permitting and eddy-resolving ocean models
(pdf,
1.7
Mb
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Talgat R. Kilmatov and Vera A. Petrova
A variational model of jet current applied to the Kuroshio Extension
(pdf,
0.5
Mb
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John C. Fyfe and Oleg A. Saenko
Anthropogenic speed-up of oceanic planetary waves
(pdf,
0.3
Mb
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Alexander Sen Gupta, Agus Santoso, Andrea Taschetto, Caroline
Ummenhofer and Matthew H. England
Fidelity in the present-day simulation and projected changes to the
southern hemisphere extratropical ocean/sea-ice system in the AR4 coupled
climate models
(pdf,
2.3
Mb
)
Didier Swingedouw, T. Fichefet, P. Huybrechts, H. Goosse, E.
Driesschaert and M.-F. Loutre
Antarctic ice-sheet melting provides negative feedbacks on future climate
warming
(pdf,
0.6
Mb
)
Jason Holt, Sarah Wakelin, Graham Tattersall, Roger Proctor,
Icarus Allen, Jerry Blackford, Tim Smyth, Jason A. Lowe, Mark Gallani
and Mike Ashworth
The sensitivity of the circulation, stratification and primary production
of the northwest European continental shelf to climate change
(pdf,
1.8
Mb
)
Marisa Montoya and Anders Levermann
Surface wind-stress threshold for glacial Atlantic overturning
(pdf,
0.7
Mb
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Pablo Ortega, Marisa Montoya and Fidel J. González-Rouco
The AMOC in millennial ECHO-g climate simulations and future climate
change scenarios
(pdf,
1.6
Mb
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Paulo Nobre, Emanuel Giarolla, Domingos Urbano, Roberto de Almeida
and Marta Malagutti
Biosphere-atmosphere-ocean interactions and climate change: the case
of Amazon deforestation
(pdf,
0.2
Mb
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Maria Nieves Lorenzo, Isabel Iglesias and Juan Jose Taboada
Influence of coloured noise in the ocean coupling on the thermohaline
circulation
(pdf,
1.3
Mb
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William J. Merryfield, Badal Pal and Michael.G. Foreman
Future winds off the Pacific coast of Canada
(pdf,
0.9
Mb
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Richard E. Thomson and Isaac V. Fine
A diagnostic model of mixed layer depth variability with application
to Ocean Station “P” in the northeast Pacific
(Permission denied)
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Session 2.1
Marine carbon cycling and other biogeochemical cycles
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Global surveys over the past several decades now allow scientists to examine decadal time-scale variations in ocean biogeochemical processes in unprecedented detail. This session invites observational and modelling papers that describe these changes from many different angles, including physical, biological, biogeochemical and carbon cycle perspectives. Emphasis will be placed on decadal changes in carbon cycling, e.g. anthropogenic carbon, air-sea exchange of carbon dioxide, the biological pump, nutrient and oxygen cycling, impacts of increasing levels of carbon dioxide on carbonate chemistry, and changes in the distribution of natural carbon in mode and deep waters. We encourage submission of contributions that have made use of a broad palette of interdisciplinary tools.
Convenors:
Corinne Le Quere (British Antarctic Survey, UK)
Jorge L. Sarmiento (Princeton University, USA)
Invited Speakers:
Christopher L. Sabine (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA, USA)
Andrew J. Watson (School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, UK)
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Christopher L. Sabine, Richard A. Feely, Frank J. Millero,
Andrew G. Dickson, Rik Wanninkhof, Dana Greeley and Esa Peltola
(Invited)
Decadal changes in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Ocean inorganic
carbon inventories
(pdf,
2.3
Mb
)
Andrew J. Watson, P.J. Brown and U. Schuster
(Invited)
The changing uptake of CO2 by the North Atlantic Ocean
(Waiting for permission)
Nicolas Metzl and Andrew Lenton
What can surface fCO2 measurements tell us about the evolution of the
Southern Ocean CO2 sink?
(pdf,
4
Mb
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Kirsten Zickfeld, John C. Fyfe, Michael Eby and Andrew
J. Weaver
Negative feedback of poleward intensifying southern hemisphere winds
on atmospheric CO2 in the 21st century
(pdf,
0.4
Mb
)
Andrew Lenton, Laurent Bopp Francis Codron, Nicolas Metzl
and Patricia Cadule
The combined effects of rising atmospheric CO2 and declining stratospheric
ozone on the past and future uptake of CO2 by the Southern Ocean
(pdf, will be added soon...)
Claire Lo Monaco, Andrew Lenton, Nicolas Metzl and Keith
B. Rodgers
Natural and anthropogenic carbon changes in mode waters of the south
west Indian Ocean
(pdf,
3.4
Mb
)
Galen A. McKinley, David Ullman, Val Bennington, Stephanie
Dutkiewicz and Nicolas R. Bates
Advective impacts on North Atlantic carbon sink variability
(pdf,
1.4
Mb
)
Keith B. Rodgers, Anand Gnanadesikan, Robert Key and
Jorge L. Sarmiento
Altimetry helps to explain patchy changes in repeat hydrography carbon
measurements
(pdf,
0.4
Mb
)
Jill A. Peloquin, Zouhair Lachkar and Nicolas P. Gruber
Understanding the impact of physical forcing on Southern Ocean phytoplankton
and primary production
(Waiting for permission)
Michio Aoyama, M. Fukasawa, T. Kawano, S. Kouketsu, Y.
Kumamoto, A. Murata, K. Sato and H. Uchida
An increase of silicic acid and nitrate concentrations along the pathway
of Lower Circumpolar Deep Water in the Pacific Ocean: results of snapshot
comparisons
(pdf,
1.2
Mb
)
Tsuneo Ono, Akihiro Shiomoto and Toshiro Saino
Recent decrease of summer time nutrients in the mixed layer of the North
Pacific HNLC region
(pdf,
1
Mb
)
Kazuaki Tadokoro, Tsuneo Ono, Ichiro Yasuda, Satoshi
Osafune, Yuji Okazaki, Akihiro Shiomoto and Hiroya Sugisaki
Possible mechanism of decadal-scale variation in PO4 concentration in
the western north Pacific, and the influence on ocean productivity
(pdf,
0.6
Mb
)
Masahiko Fujii, Fei Chai, Lei Shi, Hisayuki Y. Inoue and Masao
Ishii
Seasonal and interannual variation of ocean carbon cycling in the western
and eastern tropical-subtropical Pacific: a physical-biogeochemical
modelling study
(pdf,
1
Mb
)
Julia Wohlers, Anja Engel, Eckart Zöllner, Ulrich Sommer
and Ulf Riebesell
The impact of rising sea surface temperature on the cycling of organic
matter: an indoor mesocosm study
(Permission denied)
Richard B. Rivkin and Louis Legendre
Microbial dynamics and response to a changing polar ocean climate
(Waiting for permission)
Martin A. Montes-Hugo, Oscar Schofield, Hugh W. Ducklow,
Douglas G. Martinson and Ray Smith
Climate mediated changes in phytoplankton productivity and air-sea CO2
exchange on the western shelf of the Antarctic Peninsula over the last
30 years
(pdf,
1.2
Mb
)
Marie-Fanny Racault, Corinne Le Quéré,
Erik T. Buitenhuis and Trevor Platt
Characterisation of phytoplankton blooms and their contribution to export
production
(Permission denied)
Marta Álvarez, Claire Lo Monaco, Toste Tanhua,
Andrew Yool, Andreas Oschlies, Jonh L. Bullister, Catherine Goyet, Frank
Touratier, Rik Wanninkhof, Dave Wisegarver, Elaine McDonagh and Harry
L. Bryden
A higher storage of anthropogenic carbon in the Indian Ocean?
(pdf,
2
Mb
)
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Session 2.2
Ocean acidification and coral reef bleaching
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The global oceans are the largest natural long-term reservoir for this excess heat and CO2, absorbing approximately 85% of the heat and 26% of the combined carbon sources from deforestation and fossil fuel burning. Recent studies have demonstrated that both the temperature increases and the increased concentrations of CO2 in the oceans are causing significant changes in marine ecosystems. Many marine organisms are already affected by these anthropogenic stresses, including impacts due to coral bleaching and ocean acidification. The goal of this session is to review recent data on the physical, chemical, biological and geological impacts on marine ecosystems due to effects of ocean warming and acidification. Conceptual, experimental and modelling contributions at a variety of spatial and temporal scales are welcome.
Convenors:
Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (Centre for Marine Studies, University of Queensland, Australia)
Richard A. Feely (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA, USA)
Invited Speakers:
James C. Orr (Marine Environment Laboratories, Monaco, France)
Hans-Otto Pörtner (Alfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Germany)
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Hans O. Pörtner (Invited)
Ecosystem effects of ocean acidification in times of ocean warming:
a physiologist’s view
(pdf,
1.8
Mb
)
James C. Orr, Sara Jutterström, Laurent Bopp, Leif
G. Anderson, Victoria J. Fabry, Thomas Frölicher, Peter Jones,
Fortunat Joos, Ernst Maier-Reimer, Joachim Segschneider, Marco Steinacher
and Didier Swingedouw
(Invited)
Acidification of the Arctic Ocean
(presentation will be posted after materials are published)
Chris Langdon, Sarah Cullison, Michael DeGrandpre, Wade McGillis,
David Kadko and Jorge E. Corredor
Detecting climate change impacts in coral reef calcification
(Permission denied)
Simone Russo, Paolo Montagna, Malcolm McCulloch, Sergio
Silenzi, Claudio Mazzoli, Stefano Schiaparelli and Rossella Baldacconi
More effective time grid reconstruction in the calibration of geochemical
proxies from coral skeletons
(pdf,
0.9
Mb
)
Jon Havenhand, Fenina Buttler, Michael C. Thorndyke and
Jane E. Williamson
Near-future levels of ocean acidification impair fertilisation and development
in a sea urchin
(presentation will be posted after materials are published)
Richard A. Feely, Christopher L. Sabine and Dana Greeley
Decadal changes in the carbonate system of the North Pacific Ocean
(Waiting for permission, can post only after materials are published)
M. Debora Iglesias-Rodríguez, Paul R. Halloran,
Rosalind E.M. Rickaby, Ian R. Hall, Elena Colmenero-Hidalgo, John R.
Gittins, Darryl R.H. Green, Toby Tyrrell, Samantha J. Gibbs, Peter von
Dassow, Eric Rehm, E. Virginia Armbrust and Karin P. Boessenkool
Marine calcification in a high CO2 world: changes in coccolithophore
calcification since pre-industrial times
(Waiting for permission)
Jörg Dutz
Effects of CO2 induced acidification on diatom food quality and copepod
reproduction
(Waiting for permission)
Takeshi Yoshimura, Jun Nishioka, Koji Suzuki, Hiroshi
Hattori, Hiroshi Kiyosawa, Daisuke Tsumune, Kazuhiro Misumi and Takeshi
Nakatsuka
Responses of phytoplankton assemblages and organic carbon dynamics to
CO2 increase
(pdf,
0.4
Mb
)
Laura M. Parker, Pauline M. Ross and Wayne A. O’Connor
The effect of ocean acidification and temperature on the fertilisation
and development of the Sydney rock oyster, Saccostrea glomerata (Gould,
1850)
(pdf,
3.8
Mb
)
Knut Yngve Børsheim
Increased CO2 levels in the ecosphere may modify the structure of marine
plankton
(presentation will be posted after materials are published)
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Session 3.1
Natural hazards, sea level rise and coastal erosion
| |
Many coastal areas around the world are experiencing an increased impact of natural hazards. The impact of climate change to the coastal systems, resulting from increasing sea level rise, storms surges and wave heights can cause severe coastal erosion and flooding with further consequences on infrastructure and human life, especially in underdeveloped countries. A precise knowledge on the magnitude of these impacts and the factors controlling them is a prerequisite to perform any decision making process related to mitigation and adaptation policies. We invite papers exploring linkages between climate change and coastal natural hazards. Studies may also address climate change impacts on the coast including altered hydrology and sea-level rise, changes in surface waves, storm surges, altered ocean-meteorological weather patterns and frequency of extreme events. In particular, research that improve our understanding of sea-level rise and variability, including the different factors influencing the observed sea level, observational systems and requirements needed to refine this, and future projections and uncertainties, are especially welcome.
Convenors:
Kevin Horsburgh (Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, UK)
Iñigo J. Losada (Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental, Universidad de Cantabria, Spain)
Invited Speakers:
John Rees (British Geological Survey, UK)
Katja Woth (Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center, Germany)
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John G. Rees (Invited)
Coastal erosion under changing climates
(pdf,
2
Mb
)
Katja Woth and Hans von Storch
(Invited)
Storm surges, perspectives and options
(pdf,
1.6
Mb
)
John A. Church, C.M. Domingues, N.J. White, P.J. Gleckler,
S.E. Wijffels, P.M. Barker and J.R. Dunn
Improved ocean-warming estimates: implications for climate models and
sea-level rise
(pdf,
2.5
Mb
)
Alejandro Cearreta, Eduardo Leorri, Roland Gehrels and
Benjamin Horton
Two hundred years of sea-level rise reconstruction by combining instrumental
and geological data from the southern Bay of Biscay
(Waiting for permission)
Damià Gomis, Enrique Álvarez-Fanjul, Michael
N. Tsimplis, Marta Marcos, Ananda Pascual, Simón Ruiz, Sesbastià
Monserrat, Francisco M. Calafat, Gabriel Jordà, Marcos G. Sotillo,
Begoña Pérez, Immaculada Ferrer, Roland Aznar, Simon A.
Josey, Gilles Larnicol and Samuel Somot
The VANIMEDAT project: decadal and interdecadal sea-level variability
in the Mediterranean Sea and the northeastern sector of the Atlantic
Ocean
(pdf,
0.8
Mb
)
Francisco M. Calafat, Damià Gomis, Ananda Pascual,
Marta Marcos and Simón Ruiz
Recovery of sea level fields of the last decades from altimetry and
tide gauge data
(pdf,
0.5
Mb
)
Marta Marcos and Michael N. Tsimplis
Sea level change and extreme events in the Mediterranean Sea
(pdf,
2
Mb
)
Sommart Niemnil, Marc Naeiji and Itthi Trisirisatayawong
Sea level trend in Gulf of Thailand using satellite altimetry data
(Waiting for permission)
Ademilson Zamboni and João Luiz Nicolodi
An analysis of Brazilian coastal erosion
(pdf,
1.3
Mb
)
Melisa Menéndez, Fernando J. Méndez and
Inigo J. Losada
Forecasting the seasonal to interannual variability of extreme sea levels
(pdf,
1
Mb
)
Wataru Sasaki and Toshiyuki Hibiya
Interannual variability and recent increase in the summertime significant
wave heights in the western North Pacific
(pdf,
1.5
Mb
)
Jennifer L. Irish, Mir Emad Mousavi, Billy L. Edge, Francisco
Olivera and Ashley E. Frey
Quantification of climate change impacts on hurricane flooding
(Permission denied)
Il-Ju Moon, Seok Jae Kwon and S.K. Kang
Growing intensification of landfalling typhoon at higher latitude
(Permission denied)
Tetyana L. Kuchma
Contribution of remote sensing data to ocean hazards monitoring and
emergency system development
(Waiting for permission)
José A. Jiménez, Vicenç Gracia and
Herminia I. Valdemoro
The Ebro delta coastal response during 2001-2004: a proxy of the potential
effects of an increase in storminess
(pdf,
1
Mb
)
Fernando J. Méndez, Inigo J. Losada, Raul Medina, Maitane
Olabarrieta, Melisa Menéndez and Paula Camus
A methodology to evaluate the impacts of climate change in a coastal
system
(pdf,
4
Mb
)
Carlos Coelho, Raquel Silva, F. Veloso-Gomes and F. Taveira-Pinto
Potential impacts of climate change on NW Portuguese coastal zones
(pdf,
3.4
Mb
)
António Jorge da Silva, Inês Martins, Ana
Santos and Luísa Bastos
NW Iberian coastal current: a feature of extreme freshwater and wind
conditions
(pdf, waiting for an updated file)
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Session 3.2
Estuarine and wetland ecosystem functioning
| |
Climate change will potentially result in dramatic alterations for coastal ecosystems—affecting fluxes of water, sediments and nutrients; geomorphology; and societal use and management of coastal regions. Particularly sensitive are sea-level controlled wetlands and enclosed water bodies, such as estuaries and coastal lagoons. Manifestations of climate change include altered hydrology and sea-level rise, altered weather patterns and frequency of extreme events. The ability of coastal ecosystems to remain productive and functional within the complex interactions of landscape and human dependence relies on continued ecosystem processing of materials and energy. Human activities influence these functions and will modify the coastal ecosystem’s ability to respond to (or even survive) climate change. Human impacts on ecosystem function are being addressed widely for natural resource management, and the effects of climate change on ecosystem functioning are receiving more attention. The challenge is to understand how the two interplay in management and sustainability of ecosystems that support the viable integration of humans and future coastal landscapes. This session invites papers that explore how the consequences of climate change may result in altered material fluxes, geomorphology, hydrology, habitats, ecosystem functioning, and societal functioning within coastal ecosystems.
Convenors:
Robert R. Christian (East Carolina University, USA)
Nancy Rabalais (Defelice Center, Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium, USA)
Invited Speakers:
Robert Diaz (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, USA)
Pierluigi Viaroli (Parma University, Italy)
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Pierluigi Viaroli (Invited)
Assessing ecosystem properties and predicting responses of coastal lagoons
to altered hydrology, nutrient cycling and direct anthropogenic pressures
(pdf,
1.9
Mb
)
Robert J. Diaz (Invited)
Future climate and oxygen depletion in coastal oceans
(Waiting for permission)
Clyde L. MacKenzie, Jr.
Rapid turnovers in the molluscan and crustacean fisheries, Cape Cod
to New Jersey, a consequence on climate change?
(Waiting for permission)
Jonne Kotta, Ilmar Kotta and Helen Orav-Kotta
Identification of important spatial and temporal scales of ecological
variables: the relative contribution of climate variables on a soft
bottom invertebrate assemblage
(pdf,
0.8
Mb
)
José M. Gorostiaga, Nahiara Muguerza, Stéfani Novoa,
Alberto Santolaria, Antonio Secilla and Isabel Díez
Changes in the benthic subtidal vegetation along the Basque coast (north
Spain) and the probable relationship with climate change
(pdf,
0.5
Mb
)
Simone Libralato and Cosimo Solidoro
Effects of climate-driven changes on coastal food webs: the role of
precipitation patterns
(pdf,
1.3
Mb
)
Tamara Cibic, Oriana Blasutto, Nicoletta Burba, Andrea
Bussani, Cinzia Comici, Claus Falconi and Serena Fonda Umani
Benthic diatom response to changing environmental conditions
(pdf,
0.8
Mb
)
Monika Kedra, Maria Wlodarska-Kowalczuk and Jan Marcin
Weslawski
Decadal change in soft-bottom community structure in high arctic fjord
(Kongsfjorden, Svalbard)
(pdf,
1
Mb
)
Sonia Moreno and F. Xavier Niell
Temperature methanogenesis regulation in shallow temperate estuaries
(pdf,
1.6
Mb
)
Inés Álvarez, Moncho Gómez-Gesteira,
Maite de Castro and João Miguel Dias
Changes in coastal upwelling conditions along the western coast of the
Iberian Peninsula for the last 40 years
(Waiting for permission)
Georg Martin
Response of structure and distribution pattern of benthic littoral communities
to climatic variation and eutrophication
(Waiting for permission)
Melanie J. Bishop and Brendan P. Kelaher
Compositional changes in aquatic macrophytes propagate through detrital
food webs
(pdf,
1
Mb
)
Candida Savage, Peter R. Leavitt and Ragnar Elmgren
Effects of land use, urbanisation, and climate change on coastal eutrophication
in the Baltic Sea
(Permission denied)
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Session 4.1
Impacts on lower trophic levels
| |
Physiological processes of planktonic organisms, such as nutrient uptake, photosynthesis, respiration, and reproductive development are highly sensitive to temperature as well as other environmental factors such as UV and CO2. Most plankton species are short lived, resulting in tight coupling between environmental effects and plankton dynamics. In contrast to higher trophic levels such as fish, few plankton species are commercially exploited so changes at lower trophic levels may be more easily be attributed to climate variability and change. These characteristics make lower trophic levels good potential indicators of the global impacts of climate change. Impacts may include changes in distribution of individual species and communities, in the timing of important lifecycle events or phenology, in abundance and community structure, and through feed-backs to the climate system. In turn these climate impacts on plankton may have consequences for higher trophic levels and ecosystem structure and dynamics. In this session contributions on the impacts of climate change on all lower food-web components of the plankton, from bacteria to mesozooplankton, are particularly encouraged.
Convenors:
Delphine Bonnet (University of Montpellier, France)
Roger Harris (Plymouth Marine Laboratory, UK)
Invited Speakers:
Sanae Chiba (Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan)
Angel Lopez-Urrutia (Centro Oceanográfico de Gijón, Instituto Español de Oceanografia, Spain)
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Ángel López-Urrutia (Invited)
Temperature rules the oceans biota
(Permission denied)
Sanae Chiba (Invited)
Anyway the wind blows… Scenario from climate to the lower trophic
levels in the western North Pacific
(pdf,
2.6
Mb
)
Clara Ruiz-González, M. Galí, J.M. Gasol and R.
Simó
Effects of increasing UV radiation on arctic bacterioplankton community
structure and activity
(pdf,
1
Mb
)
Jeffrey J. Polovina, Evan A. Howell and Melanie Abecassis
Ocean’s least productive waters are expanding
(pdf,
0.5
Mb
)
Violeta Saló, Rafel Simó; and Albert Calbet
Role of microzooplankton grazing in the DMS cycle: laboratory and field
studies
(pdf,
0.7
Mb
)
Severine Alvain, C. Le Quéré, L. Bopp,
M.-F. Racault, Y. Dandonneau and C. Moulin
Shifts in phytoplankton ecosystem composition and large scale indices
of climate variability
(Permission denied)
William K.W. Li
Propagation of an atmospheric climate signal to local phytoplankton
in a small marine basin
(pdf,
2.3
Mb
)
Xosé Anxelu G. Morán, Ángel López-Urrutia,
Alejandra Calvo-Díaz and William K.W. Li
Ocean warming and phytoplankton size
(pdf,
0.4
Mb
)
Stephanie Henson, J.P. Dunne and J.L. Sarmiento
Decadal changes in North Atlantic phytoplankton blooms
(pdf,
0.5
Mb
)
Stephen Dye, Sonja Van Leeuwen, Naomi Greenwood and Liam
Fernand
The future of shelf seas: Projections and observations of changes in
the thermal structure and consequences for primary production and water
quality
(Waiting for permission)
Mark D. Ohman, Michael R. Landry, Ralf Goericke, Peter
J.S. Franks, Karen S. Baker, and the CCE LTER participants
A mechanistic perspective on ecosystem response to climate variability:
the California Current Ecosystem LTER site
(Permission denied)
Andrew D. Barton, M. Follows and S. Dutkiewicz
How does climate change impact the biodiversity of marine phytoplankton
communities in the North Atlantic Ocean?
(pdf,
1.4
Mb
)
Christian Möllmann, Janna Peters, Rabea Diekmann
and Georgs Kornilovs
Ecosystem consequences of decadal changes in energy and carbon flows
due to climate-induced changes in Baltic zooplankton
(pdf,
0.2
Mb
)
Fernando Gómez, Sami Souissi, Hervé Claustre and
Bernard Queguiner
Microplankton response to climatic variability in the English Channel
and western Mediterranean Sea
(Permission denied)
Antonio Bode, Maria Teresa Alvarez-Ossorio, Jose Manuel
Cabanas, Ana Miranda and
Manuel Varela
Surface warming, decreasing upwelling intensity and plankton off Galicia
(NW Spain)
(pdf,
0.7
Mb
)
Anthony J. Richardson, Andrew Bakun and Mark J. Gibbons
The jellyfish joyride: can we stop oceans sliding down the slippery
slope to slimy stingers?
(Waiting for permission)
Ilaria Nardello, Russell W. Poole, Heather Cannaby, Caroline
Cusack, Ciar O’Toole, Chris Lynam, Sinan Y. Husrevoglu, Joe Silke,
Guy Westbrook, Leonie Dransfeld, Ken Whelan and G. Nolan
Effects of North Atlantic climate variations on the Irish marine ecosystem
(pdf,
1.2
Mb
)
Taketo Hashioka, Takashi T. Sakamoto and Yasuhiro Yamanaka
Impacts of global warming on lower-trophic level ecosystem projected
by a 3-D high-resolution ecosystem model
(Waiting for file)
SCOR WG Members, Associate Members, Data Collaborators and David
Mackas
SCOR WG125 “Global comparison of zooplankton time series”:
A summary of results
(pdf,
0.9
Mb
)
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Session 4.2
Impacts on higher trophic levels
| |
Marine species, including many commercially-exploited stocks, have evolved species-specific life histories through adaptation to complex environmental conditions. They also clearly respond to ocean variability over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales and through various pathways. These responses are both direct, through regulating metabolic factors such as swimming speeds, activity rates, feeding rates and reproduction, and indirect, primarily through effects on the food web. They can result in changes in growth, recruitment, abundance, age of maturity, distribution, etc. The effects of fishing can also make populations more vulnerable to climate change and changes in higher trophic levels, in turn, can affect ecosystems through, for example, “top-down” or “wasp-waist” controls. In this session we encourage contributions on the impacts of climate variability and change (either direct or indirect) on trophic levels above mesozooplankton; ecosystem modeling that includes higher trophic levels; mechanistic linkages between climate change and population dynamics; the interaction between climate and fishing; and indicators that are useful for earlier detection of ecosystem changes. Contributions addressing perspectives on management of ecosystems and commercially-exploited stocks in the face of future climate change are also invited.
Convenors:
Jurgen Alheit (Baltic Sea Research Institute, University of Rostock, Germany)
Kenneth Drinkwater (Institute of Marine Research, Norway)
Akihiko Yatsu (Hokkaido National Fisheries Research Institute, Japan)
Invited Speakers:
Keith Brander (Technical University of Denmark, Denmark)
Michio Kishi (Hokkaido University, Japan)
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Keith Brander (Invited)
Predicting impacts of climate change on fisheries production
(pdf,
1.2
Mb
)
Michio J. Kishi, Yasunori Sakurai and Masahide Kaeriyama
(Invited)
What will happen on the stock of chum salmon, walleye pollack, and common
squid in the Northern Pacific?
(pdf,
3.4
Mb
)
Adriaan D. Rijnsdorp and Christian Möllmann
Marine fish and fisheries in a changing climate
(Waiting for permission)
Yury I. Zuenko, Elena I. Ustinova, Alexander N. Vdovin,
Vladimir A. Nuzhdin and Natalia T. Dolganova
Impacts of climate shifts in the late 20th century on zooplankton and
fishery resources in the Japan Sea
(pdf,
0.8
Mb
)
Jan-Olaf Meynecke
Effect of climate change on estuarine fish production in Queensland,
Australia
(pdf,
1.5
Mb
)
Myron A. Peck, Ute Daewel and Corinna Schrum
Larval fish physiology and individual-based models: exploring climate
impacts on early life stages of key species
(pdf,
2.7
Mb
)
Frode B. Vikebø, T. Kristiansen, F.E. Werner,
S. Sundby, R.G. Lough and E.G. Durbin
Temperature, light and food mediated growth for larval cod (Gadus morhua)
at latitudinal extremes: a comparative study between the NW Atlantic
and Norwegian Sea ecosystems
(Waiting for permission)
Ralf van Hal, Catherine L. Scott and Christine Röckmann
Variability in environmental factors affecting the recruitment of fish
species in the North East Atlantic
(pdf,
0.6
Mb
)
Jürgen Alheit
Impact of climate variability on small pelagic fishes in the Atlantic
and Pacific: a comparison
(Permission denied)
Akihiko Yatsu, Hiroshi Nishida, Ken Mori, Yasunori Sakurai and
Sanae Chiba
Mechanisms of population dynamics of Japanese sardine and Japanese common
squid in the Kuroshio/Oyashio current system, with a speculation on
their future
(pdf,
1.6
Mb
)
Asit Mazumder, Marc Trudel, Ed Farley, Jamal Moss, Lisa Eisner
and Jim Murphy
Shifting warm-water to cold-water conditions and food web dynamics of
juvenile Pacific salmon in the eastern Bering Sea ecosystem
(Waiting for permission)
Kentaro Morita and Masa-aki Fukuwaka
Potential effect of rising temperature on growth performance and its
influence on chum salmon
(pdf,
0.3
Mb
)
Catarina Vinagre, Telma Ferreira, Lélia Matos, Henrique
N. Cabral and Maria José Costa
Latitudinal gradients in growth and spawning of sea bass: effect of
temperature and photoperiod
(Waiting for permission)
Anne B. Hollowed, Z. Teresa A’mar, Richard Beamish,
Nicholas A. Bond, James E. Overland, Michael J. Schirripa and Tom Wilderbuer
Fish population response to future climate drivers: A next step forward
(Waiting for permission)
Unai Ganzedo, Eduardo Zorita, Aldo Pier Solari, Guillem
Chust, Angelo Santana Del Pino and Juan José Castro
What drives tuna captures between 1525 and 1756 centuries in southern
Europe?
(pdf,
1.5
Mb
)
Earl G. Dawe, Donald G. Parsons and Eugene B. Colbourne
Effects of ocean climate variation on production, maturation, and recruitment
of snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) on the Newfoundland-Labrador shelf
(Waiting for permission)
Martin O. Lindegren and Christian Möllmann
The future of Baltic cod - modelling interactions between climate, food
web dynamics and fisheries
(pdf,
0.3
Mb
)
Marc Trudel, David L. Mackas and Asit Mazumder
Climate-mediated changes in prey quality affect the production of wild
Pacific salmon
(Permission denied)
Carmela Porteiro, Jose M. Cabanas, M.B. Santos and G.J. Pierce
The effect of environmental changes in the NE Atlantic sardine (Sardina
pilchardus) fishery
(pdf,
0.4
Mb
)
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Session 5.1
Scenarios for polar, mid-latitude, sub-tropical, and tropical environments and ecosystems
| |
There are serious gaps in our understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on the marine ecosystems, and predicting ecosystem responses may prove challenging. Large, long- lived species tend to have very stable populations, so even dramatic changes in juvenile survivorship may not easily be detected for a considerable period of time. At the other end of the size range of organisms, natural variation in population size of phytoplankton is generally large and can mask detection of longer-term trends in abundance. This requires urgent attention in order to make significant progress toward predicting and understanding the impacts of climate change on the marine environment. This session will describe future changes in the marine ecosystem, including distribution, production and biodiversity due to changing climate. We seek papers that focus on ocean currents and transport pathways, vertical stratification and impact on nutrient distribution and phytoplankton production, identification of species sensitivity to climate change (sentinel species), indirect and non-linear effects on biological processes, match/mismatch between predators and prey, and competition when/if new species are introduced into the ecosystem. Ecosystem responses to the common, large scale climatic forcing could vary in respective latitudinal regions due to regionally-specific environmental/ecological characteristics. We hope to contrast especially the mechanisms of ecosystem changes in the polar, mid-latitude, sub-tropical, and tropical regions.
Convenors:
Sanae Chiba (Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan)
Harald Loeng (Institute of Marine Research, Norway)
Invited Speakers:
Graham Hosie (Department of the Environment and Water Resources, Australian Antarctic Divisione)
Gordon Kruse (University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA)
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Graham W. Hosie (Invited)
Impacts of climate change on Antarctic marine ecosystems
(pdf,
2
Mb
)
Gordon H. Kruse, Jie Zheng and James E. Overland
(Invited)
A scenario approach to forecast potential impacts of climate change
on red king crabs in the eastern Bering Sea
(pdf,
0.7
Mb
)
Simon J. Walker, Greg A. Skilleter and Bernie M. Degnan
Predicting the effects of climatic change on the biodiversity of intertidal
sessile fauna on coral reefs
(Waiting for permission)
Teruhisa Komatsu, Atsuko Mikami, Etienne Boisnier, Tatsuyuki
Sagawa, Hideaki Tanoue, Tetsuro Ajisaka and Yoshihiko Sakanishi
Possible change in seaweed distribution in East Asia under a particular
scenario of global warming
(pdf,
1.5
Mb
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Clarence Pautzke, W. Wiseman and F. Wiese
North Pacific Research Board and National Science Foundation partner
to study biological processes on eastern Bering Sea shelf ecosystem
and impacts of climate change
(pdf,
1.3
Mb
)
Alistair J. Hobday, Elvira S. Poloczanska, Thomas J.
Kunz, Tom A. Okey and Anthony J. Richardson
Getting hot and bothered about climate change impacts in Australian
waters
(pdf,
1.3
Mb
)
Solfrid Sætre Hjøllo, Morten Skogen and
Einar Svendsen
Long term changes in North Sea physics and phytoplankton from NORWECOM
(pdf,
1
Mb
)
Xiuren Ning, Chuanlan Lin, Qiang Hao, Chenggang Liu and
Fengfeng Le
Long-term environmental changes and the responses of the ecosystem in
the northern South China Sea during 1976-2004
(pdf,
0.5
Mb
)
Fabian Blanchard, Jean-Charles Poulard, Hicham Masski and Claude
Roy
Predicting climate warming impact on marine fish communities from biogeography:
example from tropical, subtropical and temperate case studies
(Waiting for permission)
Kenneth F. Drinkwater, Harald Loeng and S. Sundby
The ecosystem response of the Barents and Norwegian seas to future climate
change with emphasis on the higher trophic levels
(Waiting for permission)
Bulent Acma
Climate changes and tourism: southeastern Anatolia region and southeastern
Anatolia Project (GAP) in Turkey as a case study
(Permission denied)
|
|
Session 5.2
Adaptation and mitigation of effects in the marine environment and ecosystems
| |
The recent reports of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the IPCC Working Groups II and III included only a minimal discussion of climate impacts on marine ecosystems. This session invites papers that will expand our understanding of climate impacts on marine ecosystems, and on ecosystem services produced. We seek papers that discuss adaptation, vulnerability, mitigation and the potential for reduction of impacts on coastal and oceanic ecosystems. What are our options for managing marine ecosystems to sustain critical services within both a climate change and an ecosystem management perspective? Will organisms be able to adapt to climate change? What tools are available to increase the likelihood that organisms will adapt and to enhance the resilience of ecosystems to detrimental impacts of changes? Coastal ecosystems such as wetlands, estuaries, intertidal and nearshore habitats, kelp forests, coral reefs and ecosystems surrounding small islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to global warming, sea level rise, increased freshwater runoff and storms, and influence of coastal winds. Changes in fish production are expected but may be mitigated by avoiding other ecological stressors such as overfishing and coastal pollution. Networks of marine protected areas and no-take marine reserves may enhance resilience of ecosystems. They may also counter selection pressures for reproduction at smaller size. Fishing practices may need to change to mitigate social and economic impacts of shifting availability of fishes as well as evolutionary changes. Aquaculture ventures will find that rising water temperatures are likely to increase growth rates of some species, but may be detrimental to others. What are the gaps in our knowledge that prevent us from making better assessments of likely outcomes under various climate change scenarios? Is it feasible and wise to consider the ocean as a depository for carbon dioxide either through pumping CO2 into the deep sea or through massive iron fertilization experiments?
Convenors:
Jane Lubchenko (Oregon State University, U.S.A.)
William T. Peterson (Hatfield Marine Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, USA)
Invited Speakers:
Marissa Baskett (National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University California Santa Barbara, USA)
Andrew A. Rosenberg (Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space, University of New Hampshire, USA)
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Andrew A. Rosenberg (Invited)
How can fisheries adapt to a changing ocean climate: beyond ecosystem-based
fishery management
(pdf,
2
Mb
)
Marissa L. Baskett (Invited)
Ecological and rapid evolutionary responses to climate change: implications
for marine management
(pdf,
2.2
Mb
)
Benjamin S. Halpern, Shaun Walbridge, Kimberly A. Selkoe, Carrie V.
Kappel, Fiorenza Micheli, Caterina D’Agrosa, John F. Bruno, Kenneth
S. Casey, Colin Ebert, Helen E. Fox, Rod Fujita, Dennis Heinemann,
Hunter S. Lenihan, Elizabeth M.P. Madin, Matthew T. Perry, Elizabeth
R. Selig, Mark Spalding, Robert Steneck and Reg Watson
A global map of human impact on marine ecosystems
(pdf,
1.6
Mb
)
William T. Peterson, Edmundo Casillas, Cheryl Morgan,
Hongsheng Bi and Hui Liu
Response and adaptation of salmon of the Pacific Northwest and the Columbia
River region of the United States (Washington and Oregon) to climate
change
(pdf,
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Diana L. Stram and Chris Oliver
Fishery management responses to climate change in the North Pacific
(pdf,
1.1
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Kelley D. Higgason and Maria Brown
Building local solutions to manage the effects of global climate change
on a marine ecosystem: a process guide for place-based resource managers
(pdf,
0.7
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Bayden D. Russell, Jo-Anne Thompson and Sean D. Connell
Managing local human impacts in marine systems under global climate
change
(Permission denied)
Elvira S. Poloczanska and Anthony J. Richardson
Marine ecosystems: under resourced, overlooked and under threat?
(pdf,
0.3
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Maria Rebecca A. Campos
Adaptation of fishing communities in the Philippines to natural risks
(pdf,
2.9
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Albrecht Götz, Russell Chalmers, Rhett Bennett,
Sven Kerwath and Paul Cowley
Marine Protected Areas as a tool for long-term monitoring of marine
biota: separating climate from anthropogenic influences
(pdf,
1.4
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Felix L. Figueroa, N. Korbee and M. Segovia
Functional indicators monitoring ecological status and vulnerabiliy
of marine macroalgae to climate change
(pdf,
1.2
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Barbaro V. Moya, Alfredo Cabrera, Lorenzo Castillo and Jose Rojo
Hicacos penninsula, face to future changes
(pdf,
1.2
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Workshop 1
Zooplankton and climate: response modes and linkages among regions, regimes, and trophic levels
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Evidence for climate-correlated variability of various components of marine ecosystems has accumulated rapidly over the past two decades. There is a growing recognition of the societal need to learn how climate and ocean environmental and biotic responses are linked, and the likely amplitude and steepness of future changes. Demographic characteristics of marine zooplankton make them especially suitable for examining variability at interannual to decadal time scales. Because zooplankton are rarely fished, their changes in abundance can greatly enhance our collective ability to evaluate the importance of and interaction between 'physical environment', 'food web', and 'fishery harvest' as causal mechanisms driving ecosystem level changes. A number of valuable within-region analyses of zooplankton time series have been published in the past decade, covering a variety of modes of variability including changes in total biomass, changes in size structure and species composition, changes in spatial distribution, and changes in phenology. But because most zooplankton time series are relatively short compared to the time scales of interest, the statistical power of individual local analyses is relatively low. Between-region and between-variable comparisons are needed, and are the mandate of SCOR's Working Group 125 on “Global comparison of zooplankton time series”. This workshop will feature several presentations and discussion by WG 125 members, but contributions from other investigators are also welcome.
We expect ~15 WG 125 members, producing 8-10 papers on topics such as “typical amplitudes and time scales of variability in different regions”, “size spectrum”, “community composition & zoogeographic shifts”, “phenologic shifts”, “statistical methods and choices”, “relation to climate indices”, “relation to fishery time series”. We anticipate an additional 10-15 contributed papers from non-WG 125 authors.
Convenors:
David L. Mackas (Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada)
Hans Verheye (Marine and Coastal Management, DEAT, South Africa)
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Todd D. O’Brien, David L. Mackas, Mark D. Ohman,
Ángel López-Urrutia and SCOR WG125 Contributors
The SCOR WG125 toolkit: issues and methods for analysing zooplankton
time series
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Todd D. O’Brien, David Mackas, Hans M. Verheye
and SCOR WG125 Contributors
SCOR WG125: global comparison of zooplankton biomass time series
(pdf,
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Damien Eloire, Delphine Bonnet and Roger Harris
Temporal variations in the zooplankton community: a 20 year time-series
analysis at station L4 in the English Channel
(Waiting for permission)
David L. Mackas, Anthony J. Richardson, Hans M. Verheye, William
Peterson, Sanae Chiba, Gregory Beaugrand, Bertha Lavaniegos and SCOR
WG125 Contributors
Climate-associated latitudinal shifts of zooplankton species and species
assemblages
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Hans M. Verheye, Dave Checkley, Sanae Chiba, Young-Shil Kang,
Webjørn Melle, Mark D. Ohman, Anthony J. Richardson and SCOR
WG125 Contributors
Long-term changes in zooplankton community size structure: a global
comparison
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David Mackas, Wulf Greve, Martin Edwards, Sanae Chiba,
Gregory Beaugrand, Elena Arashkevich and SCOR WG125 Contributors
Changing seasonal timing of zooplankton populations, and their link
to ocean climate
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Merja H. Schlueter, Agostino Merico, Karen H. Wiltshire
and Wulf Greve
Long-term changes in zooplankton phenology at Helgoland Roads
(Permission denied)
Sanae Chiba, H. Sugisaki, K. Tadokoro, A. Kuwata, T.
Kobari, A. Yamaguchi and D.L. Mackas
Pan-North Pacific synthesis of long-term variation of Neocalanus spp.
based on stable isotope analysis (SCOR WG125 contribution)
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Anthony J. Richardson, Patricia Ayon and SCOR WG125 Members
Are pelagic systems bottom-up or top-down controlled?
(Permission denied)
Juha Flinkman, E. Arashkevich, M. Lehtiniemi and S. Viitasalo
Comparison of early stages of Mnemiopsis leidyi invasion into the Black,
Caspian and Baltic Seas
(Waiting for permission)
Maria Grazia Mazzocchi, Lars Stemmann, Carmen Garcia
Comas, Maurizio Ribera d’Alcala, Gregory Beaugrand, Stéphane
Gasparini, Frederic Ibañez, Stéphane Pesant, Marc Picheral
and Gabriel Gorsky
Retrospective analysis of zooplankton decadal time series in the western
Mediterranean Sea using an automated imaging system
(pdf,
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Maria Luz Fernandez de Puelles, Juan Carlos Molinero,
Laura Vicente, Ana Morillas and Javier Jansá
Zooplankton time series related to North Atlantic climate changes in
waters of the Balearic Sea: a case of boundary area in the central western
Mediterranean
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Alessandra Conversi, T. Peluso and S. Fonda-Umani
The Gulf of Trieste, 1970-2005: a changing ecosystem
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Isabelle Rombouts, G. Beaugrand, F. Ibañez and
L. Legendre
Large-scale geographic variations in diversity of marine zooplankton:
theories, environmental controls, and functioning of pelagic ecosystems
(Permission denied)
Chris Reason, Anthony J. Richardson and SCOR WG125 Contributors
Are there teleconnections among zooplankton time series within and between
ocean basins?
(Waiting for permission)
Harold Batchelder, David Mackas, Todd D. O’Brien
and SCOR WG125 Contributors
Global zooplankton time series comparisons: where is the synchrony?
(Waiting for permission)
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Workshop 2 & 3
Linking Global Climate Model output to (a) trends in commercial species productivity and (b) changes in broader biological communities in the World's oceans
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The goal of the combined workshop will be to facilitate a coordinated international research effort to forecast climate change impacts on the distribution and production of the world’s major fisheries, and on the biological communities in which these fisheries are embedded. The specific objectives of the workshop are: (1) to review the activities of existing programs within each nation, (2) to examine the evidence for climate impacts on production of commercial fish species and other marine life, (3) to discuss the feasibility of developing medium-term to long-term forecasts of climate impacts, (4) to discuss possible responses of commercial fisheries, human communities, and governments to climate-driven changes in marine life, and (5) to identify common or standard approaches to forecasting climate change impacts on commercial species and marine communities and ecosystems.
Workshop attendees will identify climate scenarios for use in forecasting and then discuss development of forecasting tools for use in predicting climate impacts on commercial fish production and broader marine ecosystems. The workshop will provide a forum for discussion of four components needed to complete the forecasts in a timely and coordinated fashion including: IPCC scenarios, predictions of oceanographic impacts, modeling approaches, and regional scenarios for natural resource use and enhancement. The ecosystem component of the workshop will survey a wide variety of approaches including vulnerability assessments for informing location choices for ecosystem modeling efforts and management prioritization, trophodynamic fishery ecosystem modeling (i.e. Ecopath with Ecosim), climate envelope modeling, statistical approaches, and three dimensional high-resolution biogeochemical ecosystem modeling (i.e. CCC-NEMURO).
Convenors:
Part (a): Anne Hollowed (Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, USA)
Richard Beamish (Pacific Biological Station, Fisheries and Oceans Canada)
Michael Schirripa (Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, USA)
Part (b): Thomas A. Okey (Bamfield Marine Sciences Centre, Canada)
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Nicholas A. Bond, James E. Overland and Muyin Wang
A method for using IPCC model simulations to project changes in marine
ecosystems
(Waiting for permission)
Mary E. Livingston
Climate change, oceanic response and possible effects on fish stocks
in New Zealand waters
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Jae Bong Lee, Anne B. Hollowed, Nicholas A. Bond, James E. Overland,
Chang Ik Zhang and Dong Woo Lee
Forecasting climate change impacts on the distribution and abundance
of jack mackerel around Korean waters
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Sukyung Kang, Jae Bong Lee, Anne B. Hollowed, Nicholas
A. Bond and Suam Kim
Techniques for forecasting climate-induced variation in the distribution
and abundance of mackerels in the northwestern Pacific
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Adriaan D. Rijnsdorp, Joep J. de Leeuw, Lorna R. Teal
and Henk W. van der Veer
Effects of climate change on sole and plaice: timing of spawning, length
of the growth period and rate of growth
(Waiting for permission)
Z. Teresa A’mar, André E. Punt and Martin
W. Dorn
The impact on management performance of including indicators of environmental
variability in management strategies for the Gulf of Alaska walleye
pollock fishery
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Michael J. Schirripa, Richard D. Methot and C. Phillip
Goodyear
Simulation testing two methods of including environmental data in stock
assessments
(pdf,
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Alan Haynie
Climate change and changing fisher behaviour in the Bering Sea Pollock
fishery
(pdf,
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U.K. Singh and P.S. Salvekar
Large scale circulation over the west Indian Ocean and the south west
monsoon
(Waiting for permission)
Jorge L. Sarmiento, Patrick Schultz, Michael Hiscock
and Stephanie Henson
Modelling the response of ocean biology to climate warming using an
empirical approach
(Waiting for permission)
Taketo Hashioka, Takashi T. Sakamoto, Takeshi Okunishi
and Yasuhiro Yamanaka
Future ecosystem changes projected by a 3-D high-resolution ecosystem
model
(Waiting for file)
William W.L. Cheung, Vicky W.Y. Lam and Daniel Pauly
Dynamic bioclimate envelope model to predict climate-induced changes
in distribution of marine fishes and invertebrates
(pdf,
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Alistair J. Hobday, Thomas J. Kunz, Thomas A. Okey, Elvira
S. Poloczanska and Anthony J. Richardson
Informing location choices for ecosystem model development using a vulnerability
index
(Waiting for permission)
Simone Libralato, Cosimo Solidoro and Villy Christensen
Towards the integration of biogeochemical and food web models for a
comprehensive description of marine ecosystem dynamics
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Steven Mackinson, G. Daskalov, S.J.J. Heymans, S. Neira,
H. Arancibia, M. Zetina-Rejón, D. Lecari, J. Hong, C. Hequin,
M. Coll, F. Arreguin-Sanchez, L. Shannon and K. Lees
Which forcing factors fit? Using ecosystem models to investigate the
relative influence of fishing and primary productivity on the dynamics
of marine ecosystems
(Waiting for permission)
Sheila J.J. Heymans
The effects of climate change on the northern Benguela ecosystem
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Workshop 4
Prospects for multidisciplinary long-term ocean observations
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Motivated by the need to understand and measure the ocean’s role for climate, the physical community has made great strides towards implementation of global and regional ocean observing systems both in-situ and space-borne. Despite the introduction, three decades ago, of space-borne sensors for ocean colour, the observing systems for ocean biological and chemical properties are significantly less advanced. The motivation for such systems is strong and growing, given the pressures of marine ecosystems and the ocean’s significance for carbon sources and sinks. The workshop will help to scope the prospects to allow similar progress concerning observation of biogeochemical properties in the oceans. The outcome of the workshop is intended to feed into a white paper to be presented at an international symposium, OCEANOBS09 (http://www.oceanobs09.net/), to be held in the fall of 2009. The issues to be addresses follow directly from the principles and practices of GEOSS (Global Earth Observation System of Systems). The 10 year Implementation Plan (adopted February 16, 2005) clearly states that GEOSS “...builds on and adds value to existing Earth observation systems by coordinating their efforts, addressing critical gaps, supporting their interoperability, sharing information, reaching a common understanding of user requirements and improving delivery of information to users.” GEO (Group on Earth Observations) includes 68 member countries, the European Commission, and 46 participating organizations working together to establish GEOSS. With these principles and needs in mind, we invite interest groups, existing observing networks, and individuals to exchange and share their visions for a global ocean observing system that addresses key biogeochemical properties of the marine realm.
Convenors:
Ed Harrison (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA/PMEL, USA)
Richard Lampitt (Southampton Oceanography Centre, UK)
Doug Wallace (IFM-GEOMAR, Germany)
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D.E. Harrison
Ocean variability and trends, and the sustained Global Ocean Observing
System
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Christopher L. Sabine, Richard A. Feely, Stacy Maenner
and Christian Meinig
High-resolution ocean and atmosphere pCO2 time series measurements from
open ocean and coastal moorings
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Martin Visbeck, Johannes Karstensen, Arne Körtzinger
and Nicolas Gruber
Prospects for using profiling floats and gliders for biogeochemical
sustained observations?
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Richard A. Feely, Christopher L. Sabine and Rik Wanninkhof
Decadal CO2 uptake by the ocean deduced from the CLIVAR/CO2 Repeat Hydrography
Program
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R.S. Lampitt, K.E. Larkin, S.E. Hartman and M. Pagnani
The role of fixed-point deep ocean observatories in a global observing
system
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Workshop 6
Storm surges and flooding in the Baltic Sea
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The Baltic Sea water levels vary over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. The prevailing winds and river runoff produce a mean sea-surface slope, while intense storms cause flooding in the eastern Baltic. This strong variability and flooding motivate investigations of the physical processes and of quantitative methods for more accurate predictions of extreme sea-level events in the Baltic Sea.
The strongest sea-level oscillations in the Baltic Sea and the most severe floods occur in the Eastern Gulf of Finland (EGF), as storm winds over the Baltic Sea drive large volumes of water into the shallow Neva Bay at the head of the Gulf. A major objective of the ongoing research is development of a reliable system for prediction of sea-level variations and storm surges along the EGF coast. The purpose of this workshop is to facilitate the exchange of information and ideas pertaining to this research, in particular on modelling of the effects of climate change and variability on water levels, storm surges and flooding in the Baltic Sea.
Convenors:
Aleksander Toompuu (Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia)
Evgueni Kulikov (Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia)
Josef Cherniawsky (Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada)
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Aleksander Toompuu, Evgueni A. Kulikov and Germo Vali
Extreme sea level statistics along the Estonian coast
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Alexander S. Averkiev and Konstantin A. Klevannyy
Calculation of extreme water level rises along the western part of the
Gulf of Finland
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Oleg P. Nikitin and Andrey O. Koch
Sea level trends along the coast of the Gulf of Finland of the Baltic
Sea
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Alexander B. Rabinovich and Evgueni A. Kulikov
On diurnal tidal resonance in the Baltic Sea and Gulf of Finland
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Evgueni A. Kulikov, Oleg P. Nikitin and Aleksander Toompuu
Spectral analysis of sea level in the Gulf of Finland
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Josef Y. Cherniawsky, Evgueni A. Kulikov and Oleg P.
Nikitin
Sea level variability and trends from satellite altimetry and tide gauges
in the eastern Baltic Sea
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K. Klevanny and A. Rabinovich
Prof. Alexei Vsevolodovich Nekrasov (1933-2008)
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Alexey V. Nekrasov and Stanislav D. Martyanov
Influence of cyclone parameters upon the characteristics of storm surges
in St. Petersburg
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Evgueni A. Kulikov and Isaac I. Fine
Numerical modelling of the Baltic sea-level variability
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Martin Verlaan and Herman Gerritsen
Model development for flood forecast improvement in the Netherlands
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Konstantin A. Klevannyy and Suleiman-Mohammad W. Mostamandi
Recent improvements in automated flood forecasting system for St. Petersburg
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